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Middle Term Forecast

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The mass media criticized that some scientists had warned the possibility of Sichuan Earthquake in the middle term period while the authority did not accept.

What an easy critics!

Sichuan is at the earthquake region. With activity data, it is capable to forecast the activity of long term and middle term. However, the short term activity is a kind of probability. No one can predict exactly what day and what time the earthquake will come.

For example, when we knew the subprime crisis last March according to HSBC. We could predict that HSI would go down in the middle term. Can you assume HSI falling down in the short term? Certainly not. HSI rallied over 30K before a big drop!


Taken in Wenchuan: The corner after Earthquake

Friend Talk

My friend laughed at my analysis of small stocks. I was disappointed and asked for his, although he is the well-known professional in Finance.

Me: What's news about you?
Friend: Just made a deal.
Me: Oil? 386?
Friend: less a hundred.
Me: What did you mean?
Friend: 286.
Me: What is it? G-Prop? one of Mr. Lau's shells?
Friend: You could say so. I've got it anyway.
Me: I'm sorry to hear about that. (laugh)
Friend: I had had 5,000 lots and sold them all yesterday.
Me: So?
Friend: bought at 0.38 and sold at 0.59.
Me: So?
Friend: Are you SO-ing enough? I have no discrimination against any stock or stakeholder. I reject following the trend and just trust my own analysis. According to the characteristics of shells, the stock should not suffer from plain trend for quite a long time. Because of the holiday as today, I decided to make a rapid deal. Fortunately it acted just before the Fed moved.
Me: Oh, I see. Let you pay this meal.