Investment By One Million Bucks

Happy New Year

2012-01-01T06:46:00.000-08:00

Year 2011 is very bad. There was no good investment opportunity in the global markets.

I expect that the economic recession will continue. In my opinion, the fund managers will try to heat up the market in the former half year and sell their goods in the latter half year.

You can follow them but don't be too optimistic!

Derived by Apple

2011-07-25T11:03:00.000-07:00

異動空間：中電信挑戰 6元
2011年07月14日

魏力周二推介莎莎國際（ 178），集團昨收市後公佈今年 4至 6月營運數據，表現相當「靚仔」，營業額按年大升 35%，同店銷售增長 26%，期內新增 11家分店，難怪股價昨率先炒高 5.8%，收 5.62元，向着本欄目標 6元邁進！
大市周初暴跌千點後，昨趁外圍喘穩反彈，但成交縮至 647億元，反映人心虛怯，股價雖彈，惟成交不足，實在不宜冒險博反彈。不過，中國電信（ 728）昨大成交抽升 5%，更曾升穿周一高位，表現超強勢，值得吼實！
路透社消息指，中電信最快 11月在內地開售 iPhone，並已達洽談具體合作階段，相信是股價抽上的主因。撇除這個消息，中電信過去 1年表現亦有目共睹，相對恒指「有波幅、冇升幅」，中電信累積大升 3成，表現僅次於中國聯通（ 762）。公司今年薄利多銷，將旗下智能手機減價到 699至 899元人民幣，並計劃推出約 2000元的中價機款，令產品更多元化，盈利添保障。
中電信昨收 4.93元，股友可於 4.80元水平買，升破 52周高位 5.21元可再加碼，失守 4.70元止蝕。

魏力

Top 10 Psychological Characters

2011-06-21T02:58:00.000-07:00

人類無法抗拒的10種心理
1、鳥籠邏輯

掛一個漂亮的鳥籠在房間裡最顯眼的地方，過不了幾天，主人一定會做出下面兩個選擇之一：把鳥籠扔掉，或者買一隻鳥回來放在鳥籠裡，這就是鳥籠邏輯。

過程很簡單，設想你是這房間的主人，只要有人走進房間，看到鳥籠，就會忍不住問你：「鳥呢？是不是死了？」當你回答：「我從來都沒有養過鳥。」人們會問：「那麼，你要一個鳥籠幹什麼？」最後你不得不在兩個選擇中二選一，因為這比無休止的解釋要容易得多。

鳥籠邏輯的原因很簡單：人們絕大部分的時候是採取慣性思維，可見在生活和工作中培養邏輯思維是多麼重要。

2、破窗效應

心理學的研究上有個現象叫做「破窗效應」，就是說，一個房子如果窗戶破了，沒有人去修補，隔不久，其它的窗戶也會莫名其妙的被人打破；一面牆，如果出現一些塗鴉沒有清洗掉，很快的，牆上就佈滿了亂七八糟，不堪入目的東西；一個很乾淨的地方，人會不好意思丟垃圾，但是一旦地上有垃圾出現之後，人就會毫不猶疑的拋，絲毫不覺羞愧。

這真是很奇怪的現象，心理學家研究的就是這個「引爆點」，地上究竟要有多髒，人們才會覺得反正這麼髒，再髒一點無所謂，情況究竟要壞到什麼程度，人們才會自暴自棄，讓它爛到底。任何壞事，如果在開始時沒有阻攔掉，形成風氣，改也改不掉，就好像河堤，一個小缺口沒有及時修補，可以崩壩，造成千百萬倍的損失。

3、責任分散效應

1964年3月13日夜3時20 分，在美國紐約郊外某公寓前，一位叫朱諾比白的年輕女子在結束酒巴間工作回家的路上遇刺。當她絕望地喊叫：「有人要殺人啦!救命!救命!」聽到喊叫聲，附近住戶亮起了燈，打開了窗戶，兇手嚇跑了。當一切恢復平靜後，兇手又返回作案。當她又叫喊時，附近的住戶又打開了電燈，兇手又逃跑了。當她認為已經無事，回到自己家上樓時，兇手又一次出現在她面前，將她殺死在樓梯上。在這個過程中，儘管她大聲呼救，她的鄰居中至少有 38位到窗前觀看，但無一人來救她，甚至無一人打電話報警。這件事引起紐約社會的轟動，也引起了社會心理學工作者的重視和思考。人們把這種眾多的旁觀者見死不救的現象稱為責任分散效應。

對於責任分散效應形成的原因，心理學家進行了大量的實驗和調查，結果發現：這種現象不能僅僅說是眾人的冷酷無情，或道德日益淪喪的表現。因為在不同的場合，人們的援助行為確實是不同的。當一個人遇到緊急情境時，如果只有他一個人能提供幫助，他會清醒地意識到自己的責任，對受難者給予幫助。如果他見死不救會產生罪惡感、內疚感，這需要付出很高的心理代價。而如果有許多人在場的話，幫助求助者的責任就由大家來分擔，造成責任分散，每個人分擔的責任很少，旁觀者甚至可能連他自己的那一份責任也意識不到，從而產生一種「我不去救，由別人去救」的心理，造成「集體冷漠」的局面。如何打破這種局面，這是心理學家正在研究的一個重要課題。

4、帕金森定律

英國著名歷史學家諾斯古德·帕金森通過長期調查研究，寫出一本名叫《帕金森定律》的書。他在書中闡述了機構人員膨脹的原因及後果：一個不稱職的官員，可能有三條出路，第一是申請退職，把位子讓給能幹的人；第二是讓一位能幹的人來協助自己工作；第三是任用兩個水平比自己更低的人當助手。

第一條路是萬萬走不得的，因為那樣會喪失許多權利；第二條路也不能走，因為那個能幹的人會成為自己的對手；看來只有第三條路最適宜。於是，兩個平庸的助手分擔了他的工作，他自己則高高在上發號施令，他們不會對自己的權利構成威脅。兩個助手既然無能，他們就上行下效，再為自己找兩個更加無能的助手。如此類推，就形成了一個機構臃腫，人浮於事，相互扯皮，效率低下的領導體系。

5、暈輪效應

俄國著名的大文豪普希金曾因暈輪效應的作用吃了大苦頭。他狂熱地愛上了被稱為「莫斯科第一美人」的娜坦麗，並且和她結了婚。娜坦麗容貌驚人，但與普希金志不同道不合。當普希金每次把寫好的詩讀給她聽時，她總是捂著耳朵說：「不要聽！不要聽！」相反，她總是要普希金陪她遊樂，出席一些豪華的晚會、舞會，普希金為此丟下創作，弄得債台高築，最後還為她決鬥而死，使一顆文學巨星過早地隕落。在普希金看來，一個漂亮的女人也必然有非凡的智慧和高貴的品格，然而事實並非如此，這種現象被稱為暈輪效應。

所謂暈輪效應，就是在人際交往中，人身上表現出的某一方面的特徵，掩蓋了其他特徵，從而造成人際認知的障礙。在日常生活中，「暈輪效應」往往在悄悄地影響著我們對別人的認知和評價。比如有的老年人對青年人的個別缺點，或衣著打扮、生活習慣看不順眼，就認為他們一定沒出息；有的青年人由於傾慕朋友的某一可愛之處，就會把他看得處處可愛，真所謂「一俊遮百丑」。

暈輪效應是一種以偏概全的主觀心理臆測，其錯誤在於：第一，它容易抓住事物的個別特徵，習慣以個別推及一般，就像盲人摸像一樣，以點代面；第二，它把並無內在聯繫的一些個性或外貌特徵聯繫在一起，斷言有這種特徵必然會有另一種特徵；第三，它說好就全都肯定，說壞就全部否定，這是一種受主觀偏見支配的絕對化傾向。總之，暈輪效應是人際交往中對人的心理影響很大的認知障礙，我們在交往中要儘量地避免和克服暈輪效應的副作用。

6、霍桑效應

心理學上的一種實驗者效應。20世紀20-30年代，美國研究人員在芝加哥西方電力公司霍桑工廠進行的工作條件、社會因素和生產效益關係實驗中發現了實驗者效應，稱霍桑效應。

實驗的第一階段是從1924年11月開始的工作條件和生產效益的關係，設為實驗組和控制組。結果不管增加或控制照明度，實驗組產量都上升，而且照明度不變的控制組產量也增加。另外，又試驗了工資報酬、工間休息時間、每日工作長度和每週工作天數等因素，也看不出這些工作條件對生產效益有何直接影響。

第二階段的試驗是由美國哈佛大學教授梅奧領導的，著重研究社會因素與生產效率的關係，結果發現生產效率的提高主要是由於被實驗者在精神方面發生了巨大的變化。參加試驗的工人被置於專門的實驗室並由研究人員領導，其社會狀況發生了變化，受到各方面的關注，從而形成了參與試驗的感覺，覺得自己是公司中重要的一部分，從而使工人從社會角度方面被激勵，促進產量上升。

這個效應告訴我們，當同學或自己受到公眾的關注或注視時，學習和交往的效率就會大大增加。因此，我們在日常生活中要學會與他人友好相處，明白什麼樣的行為才是同學和老師所接受和讚賞的，我們只有在生活和學習中不斷地增加自己的良好行為，才可能受到更多人的關注和讚賞，也才可能讓我們的學習不斷進步，充滿自信！

7、習得性無助實驗

習得性無助效應最早有奧弗米爾和西里格曼發現，後來在動物和人類研究中被廣泛探討。簡單地說，很多實驗表明，經過訓練，狗可以越過屏障或從事其他的行為來逃避實驗者加於它的電擊。但是，如果狗以前受到不可預期（不知道什麼時候到來）且不可控制的電擊（如電擊的中斷與否不依賴於狗的行為），當狗後來有機會逃離電擊時，他們也變得無力逃離。而且，狗還表現出其他方面的缺陷，如感到沮喪和壓抑，主動性降低等等。

狗之所以表現出這種狀況，是由於在實驗的早期學到了一種無助感。也就是說，它們認識到自己無論做什麼都不能控制電擊的終止。在每次實驗中，電擊終止都是在實驗者掌控之下的，而狗會認識到自己沒有能力改變這種外界的控制，從而學到了一種無助感。

人如果產生了習得性無助，就成為了一種深深的絕望和悲哀。因此，我們在學習和生活中應把自己的眼光在開闊一點，看到事件背後的真正的決定因素，不要使我們自己陷入絕望。

8、證人的記憶

證人，在我們的認識裡，通常都是提供一些客觀的證據的人，就是把自己親眼看到、親耳聽到的東西如實地講出來的人。然而，心理學研究證明，很多證人提供的證詞都不太準確，或者說是具有個人傾向性，帶著個人的觀點和意識。

證人對他們的證詞的信心並不能決定他們證詞的準確性，這一研究結果令人感到驚訝。心理學家珀費可特和豪林斯決定對這一結論進行更深入的研究。為了考察證人的證詞是否有特別的東西，他們將證人的記憶與對一般知識的記憶進行了比較。

他們讓被試者看一個簡短的錄像，是關於一個女孩被綁架的案件。第二天，讓被試者回答一些有關錄像裡內容的問題，並要求他們說出對自己回答的信心程度，然後做再認記憶測驗。接下來，使用同樣的方法，內容是從百科全書和通俗讀物中選出的一般知識問題。

和以前發生的一樣，珀費可特和豪林斯也發現，在證人回憶的精確性上，那些對自己的回答信心十足的人實際上並不比那些沒信心的人更高明，但對於一般知識來說，情況就不是這樣，信心高的人回憶成績比信心不足的人好得多。

人們對於自己在一般知識上的優勢與弱勢有自知之明，因此，傾向於修改他們對於信心量表的測驗結果。一般知識是一個數據庫，在個體之間是共享的，它有公認的正確答案，被試可以自己去衡量。例如，人們會知道自己在體育問題上是否比別人更好或更差一點。但是，目擊的事件不受這種自知之明的影響。例如，從總體上講，他們不大可能知道自己比別人在記憶事件中的參與者頭髮顏色方面更好或更差。

9、羅森塔爾效應

美國心理學家羅森塔爾等人於1968年做過一個著名實驗，他們到一所小學，在一至六年級各選三個班的兒童進行煞有介事的「預測未來發展的測驗」，然後實驗者將認為有「優異發展可能」的學生名單通知教師。其實，這個名單並不是根據測驗結果確定的，而是隨機抽取的。它是以「權威性的謊言」暗示教師，從而調動了教師對名單上的學生的某種期待心理。8個月後，再次智能測驗的結果發現，名單上的學生的成績普遍提高，教師也給了他們良好的品行評語。

這個實驗取得了奇蹟般的效果，人們把這種通過教師對學生心理的潛移默化的影響，從而使學生取得教師所期望的進步的現象，稱為「羅森塔爾效應」，習慣上也稱為皮格馬利翁效應（皮格馬利翁是古希臘神話中塞浦路斯國王，他對一尊少女塑像產生愛慕之情，他的熱望最終使這尊雕像變為一個真人，兩人相愛結合）。

教育實踐也表明：如果教師喜愛某些學生，對他們會抱有較高期望，經過一段時間，學生感受到教師的關懷、愛護和鼓勵，常常以積極態度對待老師、對待學習以及對待自己的行為，學生更加自尊、自信、自愛、自強，誘發出一種積極向上的激情，這些學生常常會取得老師所期望的進步。相反，那些受到老師忽視、歧視的學生，久而久之會從教師的言談、舉止、表情中感受到教師的「偏心」，也會以消極的態度對待老師、對待自己的學習，不理會或拒絕聽從老師的要求，這些學生常常會一天天變壞，最後淪為社會的不良分子。儘管有些例外，但大趨勢卻是如此，同時這也給教師敲響了警鐘。

10、虛假同感偏差

我們通常都會相信，我們的愛好與大多數人是一樣的。如果你喜歡玩電腦遊戲，那麼就有可能高估喜歡電腦遊戲的人數。你也通常會高估給自己喜歡的同學投票的人數，高估自己在群體中的威信與領導能力等等。你的這種高估與你的行為及態度有相同特點的人數的傾向性就叫做「虛假同感偏差」。有些因素會影響你的這種虛假同感偏差強度：

（1）當外部的歸因強於內部歸因時；

（2）當前的行為或事件對某人非常重要時；

（3）當你對自己的觀點非常確定或堅信時；

（4）當你的地位或正常生活和學習受到某種威脅時；

（5）當涉及到某種積極的品質或個性時；

（6）當你將其他人看成與自己是相似時。

Being Smart in China

2011-05-01T22:02:00.000-07:00

If you are young, you should read the following article to learn how to survive in China:

学生官场无处话凄凉

蒋方舟

在大学的几年里，如果有一件事让我勉强称之为自豪的话，那么这件事就是——我从来没有进入过任何官僚机构。是的，无论是团委学生会爱心协会，还是卫生检查红袖标大妈团、寂寞男女非诚勿扰联谊组织，我从来都没有进入核心领导层。在大学里，总会有人忽然警觉地没头没脑地被人问道：“你是什么？”每到这时，我就慌忙低头讪笑道：“百姓、草民、一代卑鄙。”

询问的人像是在玩一场“三国杀”的游戏，狐疑猜忌着你似敌非友的身份。我则像个慌里慌张的初学者，游戏还没开始就紧张兮兮地亮出自己的底牌，原因很简单：我根本就没打算玩这场游戏。

我有一个外校的同学非常不理解我这种犬儒。他从大一开始，就丧心病狂地推荐我加入学生会。大一的时候，他说：“人上大学，还是应该培养点公共服务的意识。你应该进学生会，大学生可不能都像你一样。”现在过了一年半，偶尔聚会见到他，他仍真挚狂热如安利的传销员，但是推荐语变成：“人准备进入社会，总是要了解一些腐败和阴暗面，这样以后才不至于被人万箭穿心死无葬身。你应该进学生会，大学生可不能都像你一样。”

我实在经不住他过分狂热的鼓吹，想见识一下校园官僚核心组成人员，看他们生存智慧和存活成功率到底比我高出多少个跟头来，就央求他带我进入他们学校的高层内部，参加学生会的某次饭局。

进入包厢，所有人都不急着落座但也不谦让，都垂目颔首微笑站得笔直，我不明就里，也模仿他们谦卑温婉如良家宫女，最后走进来的是学生会主席，直到他落座并露出众爱卿平身的表情，所有人才按照官阶大小依次坐下。整场饭局让我像是客串了某个低成本的清朝皇帝剧，大王一挥袖，众臣举杯欢畅。虽然我是个局外的潜伏者，坐在饭桌的最边角，也不打算谋得一官半职，却也在饭局上快乐地战战兢兢，不停自己嘱咐：“君要臣笑，臣不得不笑。”

饭局将近，大家都喝得七倒八歪德行散尽，我的同学天生好酒量千杯不醉，他眼底一片清明冷冽扫视着狼藉的饭桌，小声地、一点点地向我介绍在场所有人的情仇：哪些是宿敌，哪些是同谋，哪些是两个对立党派，哪些是你不死我就不能活的人肉垫脚石。我看着所有人都在热烈交谈推心置腹，跨过巨大的饭桌对角线紧握彼此湿润的双手，完全想象不出他们之前残酷得这样厉害。我的同学笑眯眯地说：“你还是太年轻。”

年轻看起来是个错误。我并不畏惧人性的黑暗，我迷恋着有些人“遇佛杀佛，遇祖杀祖，逢师杀师，遇罗汉杀罗汉，遇父母杀父母，遇亲眷杀亲眷”，脸上却带着微笑的表情。可以说，在一定程度上，我迷恋着人性让人冷笑的复杂层面，也迷恋着人弑佛杀祖的狠劲。

但是我看不起的，是大学的学生会干部们为之杀佛弑祖的，竟然是这么小的东西——从副部长到部长，从俯首做小到终于也可以参与分赃的队伍。有本老书叫做《蚁族》，讲的是大学毕业生弱小而惶惶，我看着高校绝密核心领导班子，也觉得他们是蚁族，把腰杆子弯曲到一个难以负荷的极限，搬运累积着自己一点点的政治资本。

陈丹青先生第一次去美国，大吃了一惊：街上的年轻男女，人人长着一张没受过欺负的脸。而我在当晚的学生会饭局上，见过更可怕的脸——那还是个大一新生，刚入学生会，在饭局上扮丑扮女逗主席开心，主席醉眼朦胧笑问一句：“你叫什么名字啊？”我看着这个刚刚成年的孩子，脸上霎时绽放出骄狂的怜悯。

没有受过欺负就不会欺负人，没有丧失过自尊就不会剥夺别人的尊严。这是我对人性最底线的信任，也是我不愿意进入学生官场的理由。我那迷恋官场现形的同学前几天告诉我，他在一场学生会高层的党派之争中成为了牺牲品，打算转战团委直至得势为止。我无言以劝，只能赋诗相赠：

一入校会深似海，梦里不知身是客，出师未捷身先死，一枝红杏出墙来。

《女友·校园版》2010年第六期蒋方舟专栏

Source: 学生官场无处话凄凉

[zt] Long and Short

2011-04-23T10:49:00.000-07:00

撰文:金曹

Long與Short的比較

人不可能出賣勞力到七老八十，我們要始終要懂得投資、累積財富，以解決退休後的生活需要。而投資策略可以分為兩大類：一種是資本増值（Capital Gains Deal），例如買樓自住、買黃金、鑽石博升值等；另一種是現金流（Cash Flow Deal），例如買樓收租、買股票或買債券收息、敍造定期存款收息等。

帳面利潤無助日常開支
一般散戶投資股票，終日計算股價升跌，自己現時的身家上漲了多少，那主要是資本增值的想法，覺得股票帳面上升就是「有賺」。不錯，股價升值的確令你的資產增值，但那可說是紙上富貴，閣下是否可以用帳面上的升值解決兩餐呢？您住的房子升了值，又是否可以隨便賣掉、套取現金作生活費呢？要達致財務自由，著眼點應是淨現金流，即每月獲取的現金多於支出。特別是退休人士，投資更不宜太進取，要爭取穩定的現金流，務求在退休後的10多20年、甚至是30年，資金足以應付食、住、醫療等開支，讓自己有尊嚴地活下去。

近期定期存款息率太低，現時一年期定存利率約為0.62%。退休人士靠賺取利息，要等同獲取最低工資每小時28元，每日工作8小時，每月22天，即每月約5,000元的收入，本金便需要一千萬元。相信極少人可以單憑銀行利息度過退休後的生活，故現時的低息環境，其實是逼人投資。如不懂投資，本金便會被通脹蠶食。

從前沒有股票期權，要賺取每月現金收益，除銀行存款外，還可以考慮的有：債券、高息股票和物業。如滿足於債券或高息股每年息約4%至5%的回報率，資本充足便可以投資，不用花時間和精神。如每月要收取五千元利息，投資本金約為120至150萬元。惟中國人傳統上卻不太喜歡買債券收息，而偏愛買樓收租，這可能是由於中國人口多，旺區總是人頭湧湧，故房產長期有價。如用資產增值的角度出發（即所謂「炒樓」），任何時間都有買進沽出的機會，只視乎閣下的眼光。但如以現金流的角度出發，那就當然是等市況低迷時才買入租金回報高的物業較佳。買樓收租，扣除管理費、差餉、維修、供樓利息、物業稅等等，每年若有3%淨回報已算不錯，要做到每月最低五千元淨現金收益，投資的樓價最少要200萬元。

Short可賺取現金流
而期權這種較新的投資工具，可Long亦可Short（持長倉或短倉）。Short可以賺時間值；如有能力接貨，亦可收取期權金以低於市價等接貨，每月賺取現金流，風險比直接買入現貨低，正確地使用，可以成為賺取現金流的工具（Cash Flow Deal）。Long是以小控大，利用槓杆放大利潤（或損失），出入市的時機掌握得好，盈利可以倍計，但會輸時間值，最大的風險是輸掉投入的全數期權金，相對來說，輸錢的機會較大。故期權教室經常說Long是投機、Short是投資。

以投資於匯豐（00005）的相關期權為例，假如要賺取5,000元「最低工資回報」，昨天可考慮Short五月77.5元Put，每股收取0.7元期權金，以Short Put 8,000股（20手）計算，便可以收取5,600元期權金。投資期個多月，其間只需支付不多於十萬元的按金，而最大風險是市況下跌時，需要動用共62萬元現金，以77.5元接貨。每月要賺五千左右的現金，期權策略本金約需60萬、高息股或債券約120萬、買樓收租約200萬、銀行收息約1,000萬。每人財務狀況、風險胃納不同，沒有所謂最好的投資是甚麼，大家反而應設計一個最合適的投資組合。期權（Option）未必適合每一個人，但卻是賺取現金流的其中一個選擇。

筆者寫了一個期權分析軟件，需要Excel 2007或2010執行，包含57隻可以做期權的股票股價、引伸波幅、Call和Put的未平倉合約數量。如讀者有興趣，可透過電郵 jin.cao@hotmail.com 索取。

Reference:
以貨為本的投資哲學
免費恆生指數期權組合計價軟件
香港股票期權組合計算表
恒生指數每月數據

Fry to the Lower

2011-04-09T00:47:00.000-07:00

There is a term called Fry to the Lower 向下炒 in HK stock market. It means that someone makes the stock price lower and lower, even lower than the Net Asset Value.

By Value Investment, if the stock price is lower than the NAV, the buyer can use a better price to buy the asset of the company. The loser seems the seller.

However, if the seller is the main stakeholder of the company, he can sell them price by price to the very low price and then announce for issuing new shares at the lowest price so that he can use the lowest price to buy back the shares he sold at higher price.

As you see, the main stakeholder is always the winner while the smaller investors are all losers.

Today, the loser hold a protest against Fry to the Lower. 保障投資者協會促打擊「向下炒」Unfortunately, who cares the loser in the reality?

I would like to introduce two ways to protect yourself:
1. Not by Balance Sheet but your own calculation to get the REAL net asset value
2. Trace the companies whose main stakeholders did Fry to the Lower

Reference:

周顯 - 向下炒秘技

股市疑似莊家/經紀/幫莊蠱惑招奇文錄

股市疑似莊家乒乓波互交陣撘棚工程當更劇照

股市疑似莊家乒乓波互交陣撘棚工程當更劇照(2)

The 2011 Chinese New Year Pick

2011-02-20T01:50:00.001-08:00

It has become the time for the fourth year of Chinese New Year Pick. Some friends might not find some CNY Pick on my blog because I forgot to post them here. Sorry.

By the way, let us review the result of the so-far investment.

Year 2008 -
Pick: 0603
Return: From 0.44 To 0.21, 52% Drop
HSI Return: From 23,901 To 13,278, 44% Drop

Year 2009 -
Pick: 0005
Return: From 54.60 To 83.49, 52.9% Rise
HSI Return: From 15,214 To 20,243, 33% Rise

Year 2010 -
Pick:0001
Return: From 97.51 To 127.4, 30.6% Rise
HSI Return: From 21244 To 23,482, 10.5% Rise

As you see, except the first year, the trend of CNY is always better than that of HSI. This is because CNY focuses on the fundamental analysis instead of trend analysis. The former is long sight and can be estimated by many observable factors, while the latter is short sight and is involved in many uncontrollable factors.

Hurry to say the pick of this year! Ok, I am going to announce the fourth year of Chinese New Year Pick:

SEHK:0317 - Guangzhou Shipyard International

IBOMB picks 0317 because we expected the strong growth of ship building market boosted up by growing shipment from the international to China.

According to the conservative estimation, the reasonable minimum price should be HK$35.4. For optimistic forecast, based on the 50 time of PE, it will be up to HK$59 too. The closing price of Guangzhou Shipyard was HK$17.02 at PE of 14.40 times on 31st January 2011. Therefore, there will be at least 2.08 time return over the day investment.

How to Get a Ticket

2010-12-22T06:57:00.000-08:00

The recent snow disaster has made Heathrow Airport become the big joke in the world.

On the other hand, the behavior of Hong Kong students demonstrated the concept of Natural Selection; They did the following to get a back-home flight ticket:

1. Shout at the staff of airline
2. Tell the staff that they were hurry for their fathers' funerals.
3. Return to the airport by stealth

As a result, those who used improper methods could go back home earlier while those who followed the official instructions still got sickness in the deadly cold city.

Are you a good boy or a smart man?

News Source

Dark Empire in HK Stock Market

2010-11-24T06:56:00.001-08:00

The above relationship diagram is referred in a website talking about Hong Kong Stock Market. No one knows whether it is true or not.

In addition, some people claimed their relationship by the following (in Chinese):

首先由浩勤會計師事務所作起點,浩勤是綠色能源科技(979),高寶綠色(274),聯康生物科技(690),明豐珠寶(860)的核數師

860的獨立非執董李柏聰同時兼任274同690的董事

860的執行董鍾育麟同時兼任萊福資本(901),漢基控股(412),福方集團(885)的董事

901的大股東是合一投資(913)及歐陽啟初,主席為鍾育麟,核數師恒健會計師行,董事陳仕鴻出身陳劉韋律師行,同時兼任匯漢控股(214),412及 136的董事,律師事務所是Conyers Dill & Pearman,同時也是412,274,979的律師

歐陽啟初為馬葛斯(136)的執行董事,是412的子公司Easywin的董事,同時是葡京,金沙,星際的賭廳廳主,同時經營賭船海王星號

412的子公司Easywin之董事會成員包括鄺啟成,潘芷芸,歐陽啟初,陳銘開,翁世炳,Easywin在澳門開賭

同期大力投資澳門的有結好(64)

陳銘開在葡京開食店,同時經營澳門槍店,該店從事營銷槍械,彈藥及提供維修保養服務

翁世炳之母親為趙靜瑜,趙靜瑜於澳門之人脈極廣,於賭場業界擁有祟高地位,翁世炳之繼父為劉衍泉,劉衍泉為澳門日報讀者公益基金會之會長,同時為澳門中華總商會之常務理事及中國人民政治協商會議全國委員會委員

412的主席鄺啟成兼任內蒙發展(279)的董事,內蒙發展已經改名為民豐控股(279)

412的董事杜成泉是以前亞細安(22)的董事,亞世安已經改名為茂盛控股(22)

412的董事夏其才是以前興旺行(1003)的董事,現已經改名為真樂發控股(1003),最近又改名21控股(1003) ,興旺行的董事崔志仁是謝瑞麟(417)的董事

412的董事羅煌楓是屯門區議員,名堂一大堆

136的主席Peter Temple WHITELAM ,兼任民豐控股(279)的董事,獨立非執董許惠敏兼任新傳媒(708),廣益國際(530),環康集團(8169),內蒙發展(279)的董事

內蒙發展的董事Gary Drew Douglas兼任德發(928),科維(586)的董事,科維供股由莊友堅包銷,科維曾向一間叫Cupac Finance Limited財務公司借錢,而Cupac Finance Limited登記地址同漢基一樣

586前董事王文漢是913的董事,秘書為許惠敏,許惠敏就是上面提到的那一個,律師事務所又是Conyers Dill & Pearman,核數師是傳說中的陳葉馮

136的董事Kristi L SWARTZ兼任913,885的董事,佢個樣都仲算係靚女

913的大股東為136,董事叢鋼飛兼任駿科網絡(8081)的董事,也是中國中醫藥網(sinoMD.com)的ceo,8081的核數師是大信梁學濂,董事曾永祺兼任億鑽珠寶(475)同279的董事

279的董事盧更新兼任威利(273)的董事,莊穎思可能同莊氏一家有關

885的主席楊明光兼任華利資源(1215)的ceo及586的董事,華利資源已經改左兩次名,現時名為開源控股(1215),885董事羅愛過亦兼任586的董事,董事莊友道是莊氏一家的成員

中南証券的主席是莊友衡,負責人莊友堅,莊友堅同時是金江証券負責人,買入電盈種票的証券行仲有金利豐,金利豐的負責人是朱李月華,黃金集團(1031)主席也是朱李月華

1215主席胡翼時(33歲)入股建美集團(851),同時兼任中國管業(380),泰德陽光(307)的執董,1215董事葉嘉衡是意馬(585)的執董,董事鄺慧敏是名家國際(8108)的執董,董事高明東是中化化肥(297),偉俊集團(1013),國中控股(202),駿新能源(91),中國管業,即時科研集團(8119)的董事,董事譚新榮兼任雄豐(1141)的董事,雄豐已經改左兩次名,現稱保興發展(1141)

1215已經是另一個財技集團了,暫不作討論

273大股東是136,412,901及主席是莊友衡,董事邱恩明兼任菱控(8009)及泓鋒(2309)的董事,董事金紫耀是陳冠希艷照門主角之一陳文媛的男友,金紫耀同莊友堅相熟,273用股東資金買遊艇

708的董事包括了許惠敏,董事關倩鸞兼任恒寶利國際(3989)的董事,董事黃志輝及范敏嫦是楊受成的人

530同高銀地產(283)同系,董事包括了許惠敏,董事曹漢璽兼任麗盛集團(1004)及優能數碼(8116)的董事

8169的主席為許惠敏,董事呂新榮為理工大學副校長,同"買殼教父"劉夢熊是熟人,呂新榮是億和(838),合俊(2700),力豐(387),恆豐金(870)的董事

214同泛海國際(129)及泛海酒店(292)同系,董事陳仕鴻兼任136,412,901的董事,董事黃之強兼任129,世紀城市(355),中國鎳 (2889),華鼎(3398),,第一天然(1076),福記食品(1175),金鷹商貿(3308),長城汽車(2333),國際娛樂(8118), 弘茂科技(1010),百利保(617),富豪酒店(7Cool,冠捷科技(903)的董事(福建幫),董事洪日明係冠中地產(193)的法人代表,也是292,星美出版(8010),聯昌泰(1190)的董事

8010的律師事務所又是Conyers Dill & Pearman,核數師是陳葉馮,同586一樣,董事江子榮曾任Incutech Inv (356)的董事,應該是側魚涌區議員

1003的董事馬慧敏兼任資本策略投資(497),中策集團(235),星光電訊(383),得信佳(1186),錦興(2307),中興(715),蒙古能源(2927舊)同中國網絡的負責人,2927即現在的蒙古能源(276),受彤叔控制

276主席魯連城兼任新世界移動(862),大福證券(665),8118的董事,同陳永陸係同學,同陳振聰係生意拍檔,董事杜顯俊兼任新創建(659),665,8118的董事,董事徐慶全及劉偉彪兼任862,665的董事

前立法局議員梁錦濠透過土地發展公司總裁石禮謙認識陳振聰,陳隨后替梁錦濠看風水,得悉梁認識龔如心後,隨即要求梁介紹龔如心給他認識,因為他聲稱作法後得悉王德輝仍然在世,希望能協助龔如心尋夫,梁錦濠93年6月因賄選罪成被判監,後來陳振聰跟魯連城一起投資杭州地產

8118的主席為鄭家純,董事鄭志謙,鄭志剛,鄭錦標,鄭錦超4人兼任新時代(166)的董事,董事郭彰國兼任嘉禾(1132)同新銀(988)的董事,8118的董事包括上面的黃之強

166前身太平洋興業主席為蔣麗莉,蔣麗莉為震雄(57)主席蔣震之女,自由黨中常委,蔣麗莉及胡思聖與太平洋興業另一名前執行董事,涉嫌分別于2000 年4月22日及6月6日發表兩份虛假書面陳述,意圖詐騙太平洋興業的成員,太興若干人士,包括Super Drive,蔣麗莉,包國平及湛威豪,事緣當時由蔣麗莉控制的公司EI,以每股2.79元,收購逾6793萬股太興,其後增持至佔太興三成股權, 2000年7月,太興公佈以每股0.67向包國平發行2380萬股太興新股,亦以相同價格向湛威豪發行同量新股,共集資310百萬港元,2006年證監撤銷起訴

802老闆為陳振聰,律師事務所又是Conyers Dill & Pearman,董事李茂銘兼任華脈無線(499)的董事,亦係華豐(2109)的秘書,802同環球工程(8192)同系

8192的主席為陳振田,律師事務所又是Conyers Dill & Pearman,大股東"創業板殼王"龐維新及龐維仁兄弟,龐維新是田生(8136)主席,EVI教育(8090),豐盛創意(8136)董事,8090 由美聯集團(1200)持股51.81%,董事大半都是美聯的人,8090律師事務所又是Conyers Dill & Pearman

2109是菲籍華僑蔡振榮的公司,立法會議員蔡素玉是華豐的董事,華豐的董事仲包括亨泰(197)財務總監黃少康,叫Lawrence Gonzaga的基金經理

1200的律師事務所又是Conyers Dill & Pearman,董事顧福身兼任中交建(1800),友佳國際(2398),李寧(2331),濰柴動力(338),興達國際(1899)及田生(8136)的董事

8136的律師事務所又是Conyers Dill & Pearman,大股東是李惠文

李惠文是金利豐証券董事總經理朱李月華之父,李惠文也是澳門葡京賭場黃金廳廳主,身為何鴻燊身邊第一紅人,李惠文在澳門賭業位列叔父輩級數,金利豐同大劉都是結好(64)的股東,大劉拥有力寶証券,加上金利豐,結好,中南,金江,幾乎統一了華資証券業,之前炒電盈的還有天發同大福 ,朱李月華同何鴻燊,梁安琪,鄭裕彤,大劉,陳國強,蔡志明,向華強,楊受成關係密切

64的老闆是洪漢文同大劉屬世交,在葡京有賭廳,董事湛威豪就是166一案的配角之一,電盈一案也有份演出,董事岑建偉被證監會譴責n次都冇事,董事廖俊寧兼任東光(8150)董事,董事文剛銳兼任華財社(8317)董事,05年結好發行2億元三年期可換股債券予主席洪漢文,湛威豪,劉鑾雄,李志強,朱李月華

李志強可能是港澳的馬會董事

劉鑾雄是華人置業(127)的大股東,127的核數師是國衛會計師事務所,律師是薛馮鄺岑律師行,來往銀行中,誠興銀行是何鴻燊的,大豐銀行是何厚燁的, 董事陳國偉兼任中國興業(132),至祥置業(112),莊勝百貨(758),樂聲電子(213),遠東發展(35)的董事,莊勝百貨同利福(1212) 聯營,華置同利福同系,前董事鍾貴為東信証券(2860)的董事,秘書林光蔚兼任至祥同金匡(286)的財務總監

112同286的核數師都是國衛會計師事務所,律師都是薛馮鄺岑律師行,董事賴恩雄兼任龍昌(348)的董事,董事汪滌東兼任和記行(720),百靈達 (2326)的董事,720同2326都是國衛會計師事務所的客戶,2326的律師是Conyers Dill & Pearman,至祥潘敏慈同金匡江志明都是大劉的親信

2326董事任德煇兼任福邦(1041),綠陽國際(8306)的董事,任德煇是羅申美會計師事務所的合伙人,董事康寶駒亦兼任福邦(1041)的董事, 似乎1041同2326同系,康寶駒亦兼任天行國際(993),謝瑞麟(417)同修身堂(8200)的董事,也是香港足總主席,2326鍾意用"駿民國際"之名玩財技,

1041的大股東正是駿民國際,董事趙瑞強兼任神州資源(223)的董事,董事黃文顯兼任年代資訊(8043),利民(229),雅域集團(1229)的董事,黃文顯的家人黃乾亨是嘉華(173)及上海商業銀行的董事

8043董事陳思翰兼任中國磺業(340),大中華實業(431),富麗花-譜(8176)的董事,核數師是羅申美會計師行及中瑞岳華會計師事務所,董事陳思翰兼任8176的董事,8043主席李鐘大兼任中國衛生(673)的ceo

8176的董事陳舜權生是寶通證券企業融資部主管,凱基副總裁,天津天聯(8290)的董事,曾任職南華融資

431的律師是薛馮鄺岑律師行,主席馬曉玲是三九集團大股東陳達成的紅顏知己,陳達成於05年底因身繫三九集團案而遭內地公安拘捕,而馬曉玲98年仲係三九汽車的人事部長,中國燃氣(384)曾是是431的控股股東,而當時384的非執行董事吳邦傑就是全國人大常委會委員長吳邦國的哥哥,後來384將殼賣比馬曉玲,431董事程萬琦兼任中聯石油化(346)的董事,也是亞洲籃球總會主席,被人冠上"愛國華商"的帽子,董事陳兆敏曾任英發(439),乾坤燭 (8055)的董事

673的主席李重遠曾是香港建設/熊谷組(190)的董事

190的董事黃剛曾任職電盈,董事穆世誠曾任職鞍鋼新軋,董事鍾楚義曾任職渣打之企業融資部,奔達國際,中策集團(235),盈科拓展,現為電訊盈科(Cool執董

346的核數師是國衛會計師事務所,董事雖然有程萬琦,霍震寰等紅色人士,但也有蕭俊文一類兼職董事,蕭俊文兼任泓鋒(2309),中富(1191)的董事

1212的律師是薛馮鄺岑律師行,主席鄭裕彤及董事鄭家純,杜惠愷皆出身於新世界(17),劉鑾鴻,劉鑾雄,劉玉慧出身於華人置業,杜惠愷於 1991-2006向上海原長寧區長陳超然行賄,在改變土地用途,買賣開發土地等方面謀取方便,杜惠愷兼任新創建(659),大福(665),東亞銀行 (23),豐盛珠寶的董事,是鄭裕彤的女婿,鄭裕彤兼任周大福,萬邦投資(158),恒生銀行(11),信德集團(242),澳門娛樂的董事,鄭家純兼任 659,665,8118,480的董事,獨立非執董林兆麟兼任利信達(738),石禮謙兼任勤達集團(1172),百利保(617),莊士 (298/367),新創建,德祥(119),泰山石化(1192),碧桂園(2007).合興集團(47),新昌營造(404),香港鐵路(66),漢傳媒(491),澳門博彩(880),富豪資產管理(1881),冠君產業信託(2778),鷹君資產管理(41)的董事,亦為香港立法會議員及香港按揭証券公司董事,許照中兼任港交所(388),六福集團(590),九洲發展(908),俊和(711),星獅(535)的董事

880的主席是何鴻燊,母公司有鄭裕彤股份,母公司澳娛甚至控制澳門的水電,通訊,金融,地產及交通,董事蘇樹輝除澳娛系外,兼任禹銘(666)的董事, 謝孝衍兼任建行(939),中化代肥(297),林麥(915),中國電信(728),永亨(302))的董事,藍鴻震兼任和記港陸(715),泓富 (808),和記電訊(2332),長江基建(1038)的董事,周德熙兼任中壽(2628)的董事,梁安琪係澳門立法會議員,880的核數師屈洪疇會計師事務同時是242同利興(6Cool的核數師,利興董事何厚鏘是何厚燁家人

68的主席陳文生是和記行(720),麗星郵輪(678)的董事,何厚鏘是美麗華(71),新世界移動(862),中信泰富(267),大福證券,香港小輪(50),升岡國際(485)及信德集團的董事,馮家彬是事安集團(378),越秀交通(1052),駿威汽車(203)及三林環球(3938)的董事

242的何柱國是星島(1105),香港煙草,中航興業(1110),上海銘源(233)的董事,上海銘源的董事包括董建成,上海銘源配售用的証券行是金利豐

1105的董事包括梁振英(港府/星展/瑞安),何超瓊(信德),董建成(東方海外/國泰/中石油/中銀),邢珠迪(電盈),賈紅平(國務院),劉仲文 (中航科工),楊耀宗(利豐),Timothy David Dattels (香格理拉/深圳發展銀行),金元成(摩根大通/里昂/中信泰富),李祖澤(中華書局/三聯書店/商務印書館)

黃金(1031)的律師是Conyers Dill & Pearman,而1031的主席正是朱沃裕同李月華兩公婆,執董王顯碩兼任英發國際(439),新怡環球(1094)的董事,董事黃潤權為開明投資 (768),鈞濠集團(115),亨亞(428),包浩斯(843),凱順能源(8203),雲錫礦業(263),英發國際,奇峰木業(1228),中國網絡(8055),江山控股(295),鼎洋投資(905)的董事,董事劉文德現為匯多利(607),英發,榮盛科技(1166),華藝礦業(559), 上海策略置地(164),香港體檢(397)的董事,董事余伯仁是江山控股的董事

08年11月21日,廉政公署就一上市公司有人員疑涉貪污及盜竊罪行,搜查"英發國際"主要營業地點和多處地方,先後帶走十多人調查

英發(439)前董事謝安建為新時代集團(166),江山控股,中科環保(351),茂盛控股(22),長盈集團(689),中國資源開發(661)之執行董事

中科環保前主席韓明光,連同前執董兼財務總監鄒浩東及附屬公司前職員賴麗芹(又名賴錦彤),被控串謀詐騙中國環保電力(290中國富強集團)及中洲控股 (中科環保前身)公款一案,辯方向廉署取得控方證人陳達志(Ba叔)與本地社團成員有聯繫的資料,昨用來盤問Ba叔以質疑其誠信--舊聞

江山控股(295)大股東蘇智明05年被証監會吊銷經紀牌1個月,蘇智明隸屬金利豐証券,江山控股同黃金集團,新時代及英發同系,董事陳志遠是新時代,奇峰木業,德信(313),上海策略置地,中科環保,中國網絡,香港體檢,奧瑪仕(959)的董事

新時代(166)就是太平洋興業,大股東是周大福,董事鄭錦超是新創建,大唐潼金(8299),國際娛樂(8118)的董事,是鄭裕彤的姪仔,董事王敏剛為香港小輪,旭日企業(393),香港中旅(308),新鴻基(86),信和酒店(1221),建業實業(216),遠東發展(35)的董事,董事馮志堅為超大現代(682)及英皇証券(717)的董事,董事馮兆滔是泛海系的代表(214,129,292),也曾出任中國生物資源(8129)的董事

Is it true? Can you tell me?

Zoo and Pool

2010-08-07T00:26:00.000-07:00

"It's like a zoo" said Amina Mariam Bokhary when she arrived at the court.

People are aniaml. What an assault.

However, people are just foods of the crocodile in the pool of stock market. They are similar, ain't they?

Therefore, if you want to be a winner in the stock market, you should think independently and critically unlike an animal.

What is an animal? Please refer to what the man beside Amina said: "30 animals."

Hopeless City

2010-07-21T10:00:00.000-07:00

Someone blamed that Hong Kong has become a hopeless city because of HK girls. Why? Here is some opinion of HK girls about HK boys:

27歲男仔應該月入幾多先算ok？30歲呢？
27 歲的男仔唔應該仲係講緊追求什麼目標、興趣、開心、滿足.......等個人意慾。當然以上的個人意慾都好緊要，但亦應該要有承擔、負起家庭責任的心態。

In the other words, HK girls expect HK boys that
1. Work for Enterprise
2. Devote most of salary to Real Estate Developer
3. Give up dreams

Their expectation has make a place become the mix of despotism and monopoly. The place with the mix of despotism and monopoly has no hope.

Football and Bear II

2010-06-14T18:46:00.000-07:00

What a great event. The World Cup 2010 has started since the last Friday. As predicted in the previous article, the index dropped dramatically.

Result: 22,000 - 19600 (10th June 2010)

Football and Bear

2010-05-06T09:16:00.000-07:00

Someone asked me why the stock market fell down rapidly recently. The answer is simple, i.e. World Cup.

Yeae - Hang Seng Index
2002: 11000 -> 9000
2006: 17000 -> 15000
2010: 22000 -> ??

What is the relation? Fund managers who wave up the market take a rest to watch the matches instead of the stock market. Why not? we are champions...

How to be the rich

2010-04-27T03:11:00.000-07:00

Quoted from http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!t9lbLq2YFQWfRkCbEqOmKVM-/article?mid=556

富人和窮人的12個經典差異

1.自我認知

窮人：很少想到如何去賺錢和如何才能賺到錢，認為自己一輩子就該這樣，不相信會有什麼改變。

富人：骨子裏就深信自己生下來不是要做窮人，而是要做富人，他有強烈的賺錢意識，這已是他血液裏的東西，他會想盡一切辦法使自己致富。

2.休閒

窮人：在家看電視，為肥皂劇的劇情感動得痛哭流涕，還要仿照電視裏的時尚打扮自己。

富人：在外跑市場，即使打高爾夫球也不忘帶著項目合同。

3.交際圈子

窮人：喜歡走窮親戚，窮人的圈子大多是窮人，也排斥與富人交往，久而久之，心態成了窮人的心態，思維成了窮人的思維，做出來的事也就是窮人的模式。大家每天談論著打折商品，交流著節約技巧，雖然有利於訓練生存能力，但你的眼界也就漸漸囿於這樣的瑣事，而將雄心壯志消磨掉了。

富人：最喜歡交那種對自己有幫助，能提升自己各種能力的朋友。不純粹放任自己僅以個人喜好交朋友。

4. 學習

窮人：學手藝。

富人：學管理。

5.時間

窮人：一個享受充裕時間的人不可能掙大錢，要想悠閒輕鬆就會失去更多掙錢的機會。窮人的時間不值錢的，有時甚至多餘，不知道怎麼打發，怎麼混起來才不煩。如果你可以因為買一斤白菜多花了一毛錢而氣惱不已，卻不為虛度一天而心痛，這就是典型的窮人思維。

富人：一個人無論以何種方式掙錢，也無論錢掙得是多是少，都必須經過時間的積澱。富人的玩也是一種工作方式，是有目的的。富人的閑，閑在身體，修身養性，以利再戰，腦袋一刻也沒有閑著；窮人的閑，閑在思想，他手腳都在忙，忙著去麻將桌上多摸幾把。

6.歸屬感

窮人：是顆螺絲釘。窮人因為自身的卑微，缺少安全感，就迫切地希望自己從屬並依賴於一個團體。於是他們以這個團體的標準為自己的標準，讓自己的一切合乎規範，為團體的利益而工作，奔波，甚至遷徙。對於窮人來說，在一個著名的企業裏穩定地工作幾十年，由實習生一直幹到高級主管，那簡直是美妙得不能再美妙的理想了。

富人：那些團體的領導者通常都是富人，他們總是一方面向窮人灌輸：團結就是力量，如果你不從屬於自己這個團體，你就什麼都不是，一文不名。但另一方面，他們卻從來沒有停止過招兵買馬，培養新人，以便隨時可以把你替換。

7. 投資及對待財富

窮人：經典觀點就是少用就等於多賺。比如開一家麵館，收益率是100%，投入2萬，一年就淨賺2萬，對窮人來說很不錯了。窮人即使有錢，也捨不得拿出來，即使終於下定決心投資，也不願冒風險，最終還是走不出那一步。窮人最津津樂道的就是雞生蛋，蛋生雞，一本萬利……但是建築在一隻母雞身上的希望，畢竟是那樣脆弱。

富人：富人的出發點是萬本萬利。同樣的開麵館，富人們會想，一家麵館承載的資本只有2萬，如果有 1億資金，豈不是要開5000家麵館？要一個一個管理好，大老闆得操多少心，累白多少根頭髮呀？還不如投資賓館，一個賓館就足以消化全部的資本，哪怕收益率只有20%，一年下來也有2000萬利潤啊！

8.激情

能不能幹成大事，首先要看有沒有激情

窮人：沒有激情。他總是按部就班，很難出大錯，也絕不會做最好。沒有激情就無法興奮，就不可能全心全意投入工作，大部分的窮人不能說沒有激情，但他的激情總是消耗在太具體的事情上；上司表揚了，他會激動；商店打折了，他會激動；電視裏破鏡重圓了，他的眼淚一串一串往下流，窮人有的只是一種情緒。

富人："燕雀安知鴻鵠之志？""王侯將相，寧有種乎？"有這樣的激情，窮人終將不是窮人！激情是一種天性，是生命力的象徵，有了激情，才有了靈感的火花，才有了鮮明的個性，才有了人際關係中的強烈感染力，也才有了解決問題的魅力和方法。

9.自信

窮人：窮人的自信要通過武裝到牙齒，要通過一身高級名牌的穿戴和豪華的配飾才能給他們帶來更多的自信，窮人的自信往往不是發自內心和自然天成的。

富人：李嘉誠在談到他的經營秘訣時說："其實也沒什麼特別的，光景好時，決不過分樂觀；光景不好時，也不過度悲觀"。其實就是一種富人特有的自信。自信才能不被外力所左右，自信才可能有正確的決定。
　　
10.習慣

窮人：有個故事，一個富人送給窮人一頭牛。窮人滿懷希望開始奮鬥。可牛要吃草，人要吃飯，日子很難。窮人於是把牛賣了，買了幾隻羊，吃了一隻，剩下的來生小羊。可小羊遲遲沒有生下來，日子又艱難了。窮人又把羊賣了，買成雞。想讓雞生蛋賺錢為生，但是日子並沒有改變，最後窮人把雞也殺了，窮人的理想徹底崩潰了。這就是窮人的習慣。

富人：據一個投資專家說，富人成功秘訣就是：沒錢時，不管多困難，也不要動用投資和積蓄，壓力使你找到賺錢的新方法，幫你還清帳單。這是個好習慣。性格形成習慣，習慣決定成功。

11. 上網路

窮人：上網聊天。窮人聊天，一是窮人時間多，二是窮人的嘴天生就不能閑著。富人講究榮辱不驚，溫柔敦厚，那叫涵養，有涵養才能樹大根深。窮人就顧不了那麼多，成天受著別人的白眼，渾身沾滿了雞毛蒜皮，多少窩囊氣啊，說說都不行？聊天有理！

富人：上網找投資機會。富人上網，更多的是利用網路的低成本高效率，尋找更多的投資機會和項目，把便利運用到自己的生意中來。
　　
12.消費花錢

窮人：買名牌是為了體驗滿足感，最喜歡試驗剛出來的流行時尚產品，相信貴的必然是好的。

富人：買名牌是為了節省挑選細節的時間，與消費品的售價相比，他們更在乎產品的品質，比如會買15元的純棉T恤，也不會買昂貴的萊卡製品。

Graduate Sheep for Rich Wolves

2010-04-25T18:46:00.000-07:00

Here is the recently popular article about how a post-80 graduate could buy a flat of real estate:

一直以黎,我係discuss都係「塘邊鶴」，好少發post.但呢排睇到唔少人講80後買樓問題，令我有感而發，同大家分享一下。

我係80後，都係大學生，仲要係三大其中一間既畢業生。一直以黎，我都係屋企既希望。一家住公屋，一家五口只有老豆萬多元收入，所以屋企都好想我大學畢業，可以改善家庭環境。但好不幸，畢業時正值03年沙士，當時大學畢業生既起薪點大概係6000至7000蚊。同年我老豆又退休，兩老都需要我份家用，真係屋漏更兼逢夜雨。

03年我寄左差唔多二百封信，見左幾十份工，都無一份請。我第一份見既工係同我本科完全唔相關既物流文員，人地問我「你咁既學歷做文員，會唔會有0的委屈?」，當然最後佢都無請我。果陣見工行到腳都損，有一次忍唔住係街度喊左出黎，問自己點解會咁慘? 最終幾經辛苦終於搵到一份同本科有關既工作，月薪8000，對當時既我，已經係欣慰。不過睇住人地學歷同我差唔多，人工高我咁多，真係覺得好唔抵。

我好記得自己第三個月出糧，係1月份，亦係第一期grant loan還錢既時候。8000蚊月薪，4000蚊俾屋企，4000幾蚊還grant loan,一出糧乜錢都無洗過就嘔突，真係心傷。果陣唔好話買樓，開飯都有問題。

果時我不時思考自己既出路，終於有一晚俾我諗到: 我成日以為自己係名牌大學畢業好叻，但諗深一層，我毫無經驗，而比起同屆畢業生，我又無過人之長，咁人地憑咩請我呢? 記得果份物流文員，人地要求我打字，但我打左老半天依然未打完，仲要錯字連篇，人地又點請我呢? 於是，我努力做資料搜集，知道原來香港有好多只需花幾百蚊去考，但政府認可既資歷、證書。我係半年間，放工後隔晚去上堂，再返屋企溫書，雖然辛苦，但考到唔少資歷、證書。

重新裝備後，我再去搵工。結果僱主睇到我呢半年不斷進修，覺得我努力、肯學，終於請左我。我終於做到自己想做既工作，人工亦加左一倍，到約16000蚊，不過之後就減薪，減左千幾蚊，但對於當時既我，好似中左六合彩頭獎咁。

多左人工，但我無亂洗錢，第一個目標唔係買樓，而係還GRANT LOAN。由於我係大學時拎到相等於一年學費既獎學金，再加上我一直以黎既儲蓄，同埋慳慳埋埋既GRANT LOAN餘款，我終於係05年，比還錢期限早三年一次過還哂GRANT LOAN。雖然無債一身輕，但荷包亦輕到飄起，又要重頭再儲。

還哂GRANT LOAN，我終於可以計劃一下自己既財政。06年我同男友計劃結婚。佢同我都係公屋妹、公屋仔，無咩家底，於是要一齊儲錢，亦計劃買樓。我地都係慳家一族，環境最差既時候兩個人分一個美X快餐食，但日子就係咁過。而我係一年半以來努力做資料搜集，睇下有咩適合既樓盤。

係努力之下，08年我地終於係市區買左一層約200萬既樓。好多人都要求買新樓，但我卻只求安樂窩。雖然樓齡10多年，只有約五百呎，但兩口子已夠住。最開心既係單位兩個房都向海，真不枉我做左咁多資料搜集，去左咁多區睇樓，終於有自己既安樂窩。單位做九成按揭，首期都係20萬，連雜費約三十萬。由於我鎖定已裝修單位去睇，連裝修費都慳返。層樓按30年，月供都係8000幾蚊(連管理費)，對而家家庭月入約4-5萬蚊既我地，負擔不重。就算上年金融海嘯，我男友俾人裁員，靠積蓄都依然供得起。

而係呢幾年，除左買樓，我地仲係早幾個月前結左婚，婚禮所有洗費由我地負責;我仲係兩年前開始讀MASTER，今年結婚兼畢業。

係咁多年黎，我都無點投資股票，但依然可以做到結婚、買樓同埋讀書，同時每個月都俾家用屋企，一切全靠儲蓄同埋財政規劃。

係呢幾年，我放棄去買名牌、買貴衫、幾乎無去過旅行。可能你會覺得好難，但如果你真係想買樓，你就會放棄得到。到而家我結左婚、買左樓，有唔少朋友羨慕，而我而家仲有大把時間可以搵錢去買呢0的奢侈品，何需急於一時?相反我有唔少朋友成日換電話，又i phone又i pod,一年去幾次日本，但就歎樓貴買唔起，我真係愛莫能助。

大學生，其實就算唔係大學生，係出黎社會工作頭幾年一定係要捱，買唔起樓係必然既。係我打8000蚊一份工仲要還grant loan既時候，我絲毫無諗過要買樓。無咁大個頭，何解要戴咁大頂帽? 如果一畢業/畢業頭幾年就個個可以買得起樓，咁即係代表樓宇已經無價值，不買也罷!而家唔少同我同齡或者年紀比我小既80後大學生，拎住學位打份萬幾蚊既工，好似我當年咁怨天怨地。少不更事固然係原因，你當然可以繼續怨，而討論區都係俾你怨既地方，你無唔0岩，但世界唔會因你怨而停住，樓依然咁貴，或者更加貴，倒不如想想點樣可以裝備好自己，搵一份人工高0的既工作啦!希望睇完我既分享後，會幫到你。

當然，我都唔認同發展商起縮水樓，同埋認為政府應該復建居屋，等人地有多0的選擇。但經我呢幾年不斷搜集資料，其實港九新界都真係有唔少百幾萬既細價樓可以買架，你去中原地圖查下各區成交就一清二楚。所謂"上車盤"，即係樓既入門階，層樓買左係可以賣架嘛!暫時住住先，待價而沽，就可以換另一層大0的既樓啦!唔需要一買買成千呎新樓呀!如果幾年都唔將就，咁就真係到頭髮白都無辦法買喇!又前年、上年既價都唔高，咁點解之前唔買，今年貴先黎話買呢?簡直違反投資原則。而家每幾年就一次調整，想買樓既無需急於一時，可以儲多兩年錢，等平0的再買啦。如果你又嫌舊樓舊，又嫌面積細，但自己又係洗慣玩慣、講求生活品味既"月光族"，咁呢個應該係你既錯，而唔係社會既錯!

社會從來分等級，安居從來唔容易，唔係都唔會有「安得廣廈千萬間」之歎。我從小就係窮人，出世時住木屋，跟住係公屋，我唔會睇唔起窮人，我而家都只不過係個草根中產。窮人安貧樂道，要比富翁無病呻吟幸福得多，你睇不時有富豪自殺既新聞就知。60、70年代既窮，係指無飯開，就餓死;80年代打後既窮，卻係指買唔起樓，買唔起i phone、電腦。

如果我到今日都買唔到樓，仲係8000蚊人工，我依然會檢討自己有咩做得唔好，繼續努力。如果自己日日係個網罵人"onX"，但寫篇文章又白字連篇、文句不通，咁點叫人俾高薪請自己呢?人貴自知，我知道自己無能力買樓，就唔會買，而唔係怨政府、怨社會唔幫自己。細個既時候見到0的零食貴，買唔起，大人都會教細路儲錢買或者睇下第二度會唔會平0的啦!唔通走去同人嘈，叫人減價咩?不過話時話，而家0的家長又真係會自己自動幫細路俾錢，或者走去話人地，真係好笑!

為咩政府一定要幫我呢?人從來都係要為自己既生活負責架啦!政府真係要幫既，就係發展經濟、創造職位，而唔係派糖!你俾條魚人，不如教人捉魚，而家政府就係成日俾魚人，好多人唔識捉魚，就問政府拎，仲要埋其他野，我睇下點收科!一個乏善足陳既政府，搞到百姓無哂志氣，一味祈求幫助，悲哀!

我會繼續為自己既生活努力，我會繼續儲錢，但今次會儲黎投資，希望有第二、第三間物業，希望各位80後大學生都唔好再自怨自艾，繼續努力，希望你地都好快有自己既物業啦!

睇完我呢篇文，如果想話我"onX"，則可免，我唔會為你一兩句而有咩損傷，但可憐你依舊係一隻無殼蝸牛。如果我篇文能對你有一點啓發，就不枉我打字打到手軟!

Reference:

80後買樓(分享經歷及意見)

Author's Blog

This is beautiful 3 things

2010-04-11T19:23:00.000-07:00

A famous local author quoted an English webpage titled as "This is beautiful 3 things". I agree with him that there are some things much more important than money in the world. Let me quote his:

In Life,

3 things that you cannot chase back: Time, Word and Chance
3 things that you should not lose: Peace, Hope and Honesty
3 things that are the most valuable: Love, Confidence and Friend
3 things that are ever uncertain: Dream, Success and Fortune
3 things that make a man or woman successful: Hardworking, Sincerity and Commitment
3 things that destroy a man or woman: Alcoholism, Arrogant and Anger
3 things that are difficult to rebuild: Respect, Trust and Friendship
3 things that make you never lose: True love, Resolution and Faith

Three Masters

2010-02-22T17:41:00.000-08:00

According to the experience, there are three important career fields in Hong Kong. If Hong Kong children target at a better prospect when they grow up, they should enter the fields.

However, the time changes and the mindset changes. Someone advises that the new Three Masters should be Financial Program Host, Tutor and Feng Shui Master. Three fields share the same idea, i.e. they create a unimaginable prospect to make a big money by the knowledge unable to be proved (financial guessing, examination technique and Feng Shui respectively) and the audience have to take the responsibility of their own result.

Basically speaking, it is another game that I win, you lose.

It is not your game

2010-01-18T21:50:00.000-08:00

There is a Chinese idiom stating that the public cannot do what the government can do (只許州官放火, 不許百姓點燈). This happens in the HK warrant market obviously.

男子操控窩輪判社會服務令
Here are his steps reported:

1. Issue a big SELL order at price X
2. Issue a small BUY order at price X-n
3. Cancel the big SELL order
4. Issue a big SELL order at price X+m
5. Cancel the small BUY order
6. Issue a small BUY order at price X+m-p

As the result, the price of the warrant rises from 5.5 times to 39.9 times.

Is it a secret? I don't think so, especially for those professional investors and financial institutes.

Review of the Xmas Pick

2009-12-30T19:18:00.000-08:00

According to Webb-Site.com, the Xmas Pick could generate 1000% return over the last 10 years. On the other hand, someone criticized that Mr. Webb bought the stock at the lowest while others could only buy at the top after the Xmas Pick of each year was announced. Therefore, here is the review based on the case of buying on the first day of January and selling on the last day of December of each year.

2001-01-05: 1170 $1.14
2001-12-21: 1170 $1.61
YTD return: 41.22%, Accumulated return: 41.22%

2002-01-04: 0518 $1.64
2002-12-27: 0518 $2.30
YTD return: 40.24%, Accumulated return: 98.04%

2003-01-03: 1120 $2.175
2003-12-26: 1120 $2.50
YTD return: 14.94%, Accumulated return: 127.63%

2004-01-02: 0684 $1.49
2004-12-31: 0684 $1.23
YTD return: -17.45%, Accumulated return: 87.91%

2005-01-07: 1050 $2.65
2005-12-30: 1050 $2.975
YTD return: 12.26%, Accumulated return: 110.95%

2006-01-06: 0927 $1.58
2006-12-29: 0927 $1.82
YTD return: 15.19%, Accumulated return: 142.99%

2007-01-05: 0361 $1.04
2007-12-28: 0361 $0.75
YTD return: -27.88%, Accumulated return: 75.24%

2008-01-04: 2728 $1.10
2008-12-24: 2728 $0.62
YTD return: -43.64%, Accumulated return: -1.23%

2009-01-02: 0328 $1.38
2009-12-30: 0328 $2.78
YTD return: 101.45%, Accumulated return: 98.97%

* the above data were captured from Google Finance.
**Because of data availability, the date of transactions varies each year.
*** 0585.HK in Jan 2000 was unavailable, so the analysis starts from 2001.

Secure Code of Chinese Banks

2009-11-13T22:48:00.000-08:00

中国工商银行——ICBC (Industry and Commercial Bank of China)——“爱存不存”
中国农业银行——ABC (Agriculture Bank of China) ——“啊，不存！”
中国银行 ——BOC（Bank Of China） ——“不好存。”
中国建设银行——CCB（China Construction Bank) ——“存存吧！”
中国交通银行——CBC （China Bank Communication) ——“存不存？”
招行银行 ——CMBC (CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CORPORATION) ——“存吗？白痴！”
兴业银行 —— CIB (China Industrial Bank) ——“存一百。”
民生银行 ——CMSB （China MinSheng Bank） ——“存吗？小白”
中国光大银行——CEB (China Everbright Bank) ——“存二百。”
汇丰银行 ——HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) ——“还是不存！”
中国花旗银行——CBC (CitiBank of China) ——“存不存？”
国家开发银行——CDB (China Development Bank) ——“存点吧！”
北京市商业银行——BCCB (Beijing City Commercial Bank) ——“白存存不？”

You're hired 9

2009-08-21T17:46:00.000-07:00

我們是都市人，都市人當然經常忘記事情。我還忘記做人為了什麼呢？

You're hired 8

2009-08-21T02:27:00.000-07:00

人家以為螞蟻很勤力，每天上班。牠們當煞每天上班，因為不是同一隻螞蟻上班。為什麼螞蟻長得一模一樣？為的是議老闆認不出來。一個星期上班六天，其實是有六隻螞蟻上班。

物以類聚，衰埋一堆。

就是放一尾鯰魚在沙丁魚當中，因為鯰魚與沙丁魚是一種貓和老鼠的關係，沙丁魚一見到鯰魚，就要打醒十二分精神，提高警戒，一個不留神會讓牠吃掉。於是不斷游泳，就不會死掉。這在管理資源學上就叫「鯰魚效應」。

發憤圖強，日日沖涼。日日沖涼，為在老闆娘。

為左堆衫，放棄座山？

如果你略有小成，也是一個司奶；再較有成績已是一個耆英；如果你很努力，你做到的不是商業奇才，而是商業耆英。

You're hired 7

2009-08-19T21:10:00.000-07:00

因為我不是來找工作，我是希望成為這間公司的合伙人。百份之０．０１股份也沒有關係。

是你教我做生意不要感情用事。

我是做創投的，我現在用我非常不負責任，但是也是非常專業的眼光告訴你：我看好你，也看好你的公司你。

你們當前最大的對手知不知道是誰？

上帝創造這個世界只是用了六天，你有五天已經很多時間了。

後宮佳麗有三千，丞相只有一個，吉少會不會為了你一個佳麗而得罪丞相？

旁門左道不是不行，但是最好靠自己的實力。

家庭主婦不上網，好端端的在家裡洗衣裳，又怎會買股票連本也賠光？

You're hired 6

2009-08-18T23:26:00.000-07:00

要麼你退股，申請清盤，取回半間公司。

垃圾最強的地方是什麼？是零成本。

創業當然不容易。

那就請你量入為出。以後你花錢就花在自己的生意上，這些是 None of your Business，就是不關你的事。

你們是不想改變。因為一洗澡就表示不是鬥着玩，而是認真的。

You're hired 5

2009-08-14T18:57:00.000-07:00

女人最重聲譽，同樣，一間公司最注重商譽。

但是我知道阿爽做事很狠，以前人家叫他做「黑武士」。是形容人專門狙擊一些企業，將它們分析出售來賺錢。

在商言商，做生意並沒有對還是錯，只有賺錢還是賠錢。

白武士拯救一些面臨危機的公司，幫它們改善業績不就叫做白武士。

你們有沒有考慮過不如找些街坊幫你們做點事呢？在這一帶舊區，什麼人對買樓賣樓知道得最清楚？當然是一些老街坊。如果你們能夠找到老街坊幫你們，搜集一些買樓賣樓的資料。如果他們搜集得夠，就可以儲積分，儲到積分就有佣金。我不是叫你找他們做代理，那些佣金也不是現金，是有空就和他們去吃蛇宴，吃海鮮，去長洲。

你對數字永遠都是這麼敏感。

因為你夠狠，我說，因為夠效率。

You're hired 4

2009-08-13T18:56:00.000-07:00

賣鋪這麼大的事情，不可以由CEO一個人決定。要開個董事會，得到批准才行。根據公司法例，我們先要找個獨立董事。

我們參考一個美國同型例子，是一個連鎖冬甩店。他們一個冬甩只賣一美金，但是三年之內，他們發展到全美國都有分店，總共賺了三千萬美金。而且這間店鋪也是靠營銷權，葡萄滕行銷法，總之是靠word　of　mouth，口碑比廣告更有效而成功。

第一堂就是逢商必奸。

用白粉來帶味是不合乎成本效益。

殷實商人，這句真好，殷住的老實商人。

名牌為什麼賣得這麼貴？就是要提醒你，一個手提包比人格更貴。

You're hired 3

2009-08-12T08:48:00.001-07:00

因為一間成功的公司，最重要的是有一位CEO。

老闆有權撤換行政總裁。你們可以召開董事會議投票來決定。

You're hired 2

2009-08-11T09:30:00.001-07:00

我的專長是融資并購，就像收買的，但是OPM。就是用人家的錢來收買。我炒賣同炒人都幾叻。

是合理化烟幕。你做生意就要學。爆谷，你通常都會買爆谷。買小的買大的，只相差兩元，但大的相差一倍，似乎很划算。其實你想清楚，根本雜費，租金都是一樣的，一樣這麼多的爆谷。買大買小其實只是多一點爆谷，成本基本上沒有分別，但是利潤多兩元。

你們有沒有想過不是他們說得不好，是你聽得不對。無非就是因為財經人也是人，人要糊口，他們做了那麼多的研究，當然是自己吃完才輪到你們吃。

You're hired 1

2009-08-10T09:20:00.000-07:00

你知咩叫做資不抵債？

第一．你這樣就無故給了她九折；第二．你這張信用卡的信用額就無故少了兩萬四，雙重損失。

你可曾聽過何謂等價交換？就是人家在你身上得到什麼好處，你也要從人家身上得到同樣的好處。

資本主義社會就是這樣：天天有人在街上叫你刷卡，你的好朋友又叫你接收那間酒店，總之天天有人向你討便宜。你做生意要記住，等價交換。

借錢和還錢只不過是現金流動的一種方式。你可以流到阿蓮那裡去，也可以流到我這裡來。

Take a Break

2009-08-05T01:24:00.000-07:00

I sold out all shares I purchased in the previous 18 months MECHANICALLY. Here is the history:

Date	Unit Price	Quantity	Cost
31-Jan-08	0.45	160000	72000
5-Feb-08	0.46	80000	36800
4-Mar-08	0.69	80000	55200
1-Apr-08	0.56	80000	44800
6-May-08	0.54	80000	43200
3-Jun-08	0.46	80000	36800
8-Jul-08	0.34	160000	54400
5-Aug-08	0.3	160000	48000
2-Sep-08	0.25	160000	40000
14-Oct-08	0.2	320000	64000
4-Nov-08	0.15	320000	48000
2-Dec-08	0.14	320000	44800
6-Jan-09	0.23	320000	73600
3-Feb-09	0.2	320000	64000
3-Mar-09	0.22	160000	35200
7-Apr-09	0.29	160000	46400
5-May-09	0.35	160000	56000
2-Jun-09	0.43	160000	68800
7-Jul-09	0.37	160000	59200

This example showed you that investment does not require frequent trades. Once you have analyzed well in the beginning, you should just let it go.

All shares were sold all today at $0.52 and earned back around $800K by the capital of one million.

Already Bull

2009-08-03T01:09:00.000-07:00

曹仁超：小心無妨睇淡不必
Mr. Cho, you made me disappointed.

I have determined that the bull market has waken up since May (although the fact is as earlier as March or April), but you still said the opposite.

How much have you lost?

Why Not Bull

2009-07-17T22:13:00.000-07:00

恒指4連升第4度撲萬九大摩婁剛：熱錢多沒理由不看好

I agree with that. I don't know why some people still do not agree with that the bull market has come.

Bear or Bull

2009-05-10T19:47:00.000-07:00

Someone suggested that now is Bull I while the professional Mr. Cao said now was Bear II.

What do you think?

What do I think?
I: Earn Money, who care?

Foul Language

2009-03-30T22:26:00.000-07:00

The issue of Foul Language has likely become hit but the real questions where the foul language was used have been ignored by the press media.

Let me restate the questions raised by the councilor:
1. Amongst the officers and councilors, who does not send their children to study overseas?
2. Why did the government not implement Individualized Instruction with a plenty of profits in reserve?
3. When the government officer Mr. Wong blamed individualized instruction as the excuse of lazy teachers, he was bringing shame on scholars.

On the other hands, there are some language guidelines in other countries' congress. For example, the following words cannot be used in British Houses:

traitor
rat
blackguard
hooligan
git
swine
coward

Do you think the above words are too difficult? Actually you always hear their Cantonese version from our government officers and blue-blood councilors:

賣國賊
卑鄙小人
流氓
無賴
飯桶
豬
懦夫

Should we shut up our mouth at all? Then Hong Kong would become a city of harmony.

Eldon Surprise

2009-03-02T18:09:00.000-08:00

HSBC; A Question of Balance

Sir Eldon, why did you say so? Are you covering your fault of the acquisitions and expansions over America? You asked whether any management have stepped down in other banks. Let me tell you: Yes!

HSBC Dream

2009-01-14T21:44:00.000-08:00

HSBC is the most favorite stock of HK people. Unfortunately, after the leave of John Bond, the stock price does not grow substantially; what's worse, it falls down rapidly.

HKET (titled 股票月供匯豐十年來一場空) reported the return of HSBC through Monthly Investment Plan within 10 year has become -34%:

Monthly Contribution - $1,000
Start Date - 29 Jan 1999
Total Capital - $120,000
Average Price - $106.86
Stock Amount - 1,123.01
Current Price - $70.00
Current Value - $78,610.39
Loss - $41,389.61
Return - -34.0%

Will you still invest into the nightmare, even when its price may drop to $52 as some forecast expects? My answer is YES. The financial tsunami is out of expectation. Many international banks and even i-banks have suffered and even bankrupted. HSBC still operates normally as a machine goes ahead smoothly. I do not have any better reason to risk my money into unknown else rather into the known well system.

Mentor's Message

2008-12-30T19:55:00.000-08:00

Although decades ago, I still remember the message from my mentor. He taught me to select a correct direction of the career. Once you select wrongly, no matter how smart you are, you will suffer.

I always pass the message to students in high tables. Yet students or young men always have something called Dream, who can understand me? Yes, they will when they grow up to 30 or 40.

Webb's Xmas Pick

2008-12-21T03:38:00.001-08:00

Everyone is waiting the lighthouse of the stock market. Here is one: David Webb's Xmas Pick - Alco Holdings Limited (Alco, 0328)

Surprise

2008-11-10T17:15:00.000-08:00

一日生, 兩日熟, 三日就洞房花燭? 香港人真係好唔夠時間用?

Next Generation

2008-10-15T02:32:00.000-07:00

Today is Public Address of HKSAR Chief Executive Donald Tsang. He answered a question about the passing of financial positions in the press conference after the public address.

He said that everyone should prepare to pass his duty to his followers. He pointed out that Joseph Yam was older than 60 and should consider the issue of duty relay.

Let the new generation be on duty and make HK be vital. This is true!

U-Right

2008-10-09T18:14:00.000-07:00

It is announced that U-Right (HKEx: 627) is under liquidation due to 1.2 billion liability. Is it a surprise?

Reading the latest financial statements announced on 24 Aug 2008, we found that it earned a profit of HK$58 million last year with 1.6 billion current assets and 796 million current liabilities. By the numbers, it sounds a good company, doesn't it?

Unfortunately the company's stock trading has been suspended since 17th Sep 2008.

Interestingly there is a post about U-Right liquidation in a HK forum on 8th Oct 2008.

Where does the liability come from? Why does it do suddenly? Why does the financial statements not alert the problem?

As a retail chain, it needs cash turnover. Cash turnover is very critical, especially for sales and manufacturing parts. Current liabilities and overdraft are very high between seasons and become lower after mega sales, so they will not be shown in the statements.

1.2 billion current liability is not strangely high and the company should be able to suffer from the amount in normal time because the amount will flow from here to there. It is generated quickly and disappears quickly as well.

Unfortunately, due to the financial tsunami, banks restrict the loan applications and even chased back loans from debtors. Banks need to help themselves and do not care whether debtors can survive or not. As a result, once a company cannot return the loan, banks will liquidize the company. How cruel is it.

Great Miracle Day

2008-09-19T02:54:00.001-07:00

There is a city legend called Great Miracle Day 大奇蹟日 in Hong Kong. The term means that the index bounced back rapidly from the market disaster. The term was created in The Greed of Man 大時代, which was a well-known HK TV drama in 90s.

Legislative Council Election Day

2008-09-08T01:19:00.000-07:00

Mr. Kong is too young.
Ms. Tam is too aggressive.
Mr. Chan is good.

Congratulation!

HowTo be an Accountant in HK

2008-08-14T02:56:00.001-07:00

I found an interesting post about becoming an accountant in HK on web. Although some are not the fact, let me share it with you just for fun.

Q.1: 點成為會計師？
A: 要在行內立足，「會計牌」便是一切，單單一個會計學位並不足夠。
狹義而言，會計牌指(Hong Kong Institute of Certified Accountants, HKICPA)會員資格，入會需符合兩基本要求：學歷及經驗：
學歷：現大多數入會者為經公會舉辦之專業課程(Qualification Programme, QP)入會，其主要結構為四module：Financial Reporting、Financial Management、Auditing and Informatio Management及Taxation，通過後再將四科重考一次、為時六小時的Final Professional Exam (FPE)。
QP之入學要求為需符合下列其中之一：
1)認可會計學位，包括大部份香港認可專上學院之會計學位及極少數外國大學頒授之會計學位(老實說，後者的都是四五線大學)；
2)其他學位(包括外國大學如LSE、Wharton頒授之會計學位)加貴得令人肉痛的認可轉制課程(Conversion Programme)，外國主修會計者可能只須完成香港稅務及法律科目，申請人應向HKICPA查詢；
3)香港會計員(HKIAAT)學歷加上接駁課程(Foundation Programme or Professional Bridge Programme)。
經驗：即所謂Practical Experience Framework，絕對可以以煩死人來形容。
用最簡單的語言是，須在公會指定僱主(Authorized Employer, AE)或指定掃把(Authorized Superior, AS)下工作足夠年數(degree holders三年、Diploma holders四年、其他五年)，若然在其他僱主、掃巴下工作則需再加上公會指定的外部指定掃把(External Authorized Superior, EAS)簽名。
香港會計師公會之會員分基本會員(Certified Public Accountant, CPA)及資深會員(Fellow Certified Public Accountant, FCPA)，後者為有七年或以上經驗、有相當地位、貢獻之會員，絕非有七年資歷便自動升級。
另有一銜頭為「執業」(Practising)二字，即考取PC或經QP入會而累積四年審計經驗者，有關執業資格須每年更新。雖然有人覺得執業會員自我感覺很好、好像比一般會員稍勝一籌，但所謂執業只是能在審計報告畫烏龜而己。審計只是會計的一個分支，在客戶眼中最受喜愛、尊敬的絕非核數師(不少商人朋友異口同聲形容審計是「貼錢買難受」)而是稅務會計師。

Q.2: HKICPA外之會計資格比之如何？邊個會(eg.ICAS/ICAEW/ACCA/CPAA/ICAI...)比較好？
A: 如有意成為執業會計師以畫烏龜為生，HKICPA為唯一選擇。但一來開firm執業者只是會計行中的少數(搵客艱難),而PC本身對搵工只會是負債而非資產，是否須成為執業會計師見仁見智。
現政策下ICAEW及CPA(Aust)會員可免試成為HKICPA會員，其他世界各會計資歷則需符合HKICPA之不同要求，詳情可參閱HKICPA網頁 www.hkicpa.org.hk ，有關世界認可會計專業資歷可參閱 www.ifac.org (The International Federation of Accountants, IFAC)。
若無意成為HKICPA會員，任何IFAC會藉都足以搵食，即使有一點相差亦不算material。有關各常見海外資歷請閱Post 243，唯閱後請回！

Q.3: 咩叫Big 4？
A: 指四間不論世界還是香港都係最大會計師事務所：
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu 德勤關王陳方會計師行 (Delo, DTT)
Ernst & Young 安永會計師事務所 (EY)
KPMG 畢馬威會計師事務所 (KP, KPMG)
Pricewaterhouse Cooper 羅兵咸永道會計師事務所 (內地稱普華永道會計師事務所) (PWC, 水房,水記)
因為相對人工較高、提供工作、考試訓練較充足，所以大多數想入行的都對四間趨之若鶩。

Q.4: 咩叫2nd Tier？
並無明確定義，以蛋散若缺齋老人定義為「有一個以上主板上市公司客」，當然當中有一定討論餘地，其中較著名者有：
CCIF 陳葉馮會計師事務所
RSM Nelson Wheeler 羅申美會計師事務所
Grant Thornton 均富會計師事務所 (GT)
Moores Rowland Mazars 摩斯倫．馬賽會計師事務所
HLB Hodgson Impey Cheng 國衛會計師事務所
Horwath HK 浩華會計師事務所
PKF 梁學濂會計師事務所
Baker Tilly HK 正風會計師事務所
BDO McCabe Lo 德豪嘉信會計師事務所 (BDO)
Nexia Charles Mar Fan 馬炎璋會計師行
Lak & Associates 力恒會計師事務所有限公司
Shinewing (HK) 信永中和會計師事務所 (前Ho and Ho, 何錫麟會計師事務所)
Li, Tang, Chan 李湯陳會計師事務所
Ting Ho Kwan & Chan 丁何關陳會計師事務所

Q.5: 咩叫Local Firm？
A: 泛指不屬Big 4/2nd Tier者，即使是外資若無有份量客戶者本質上都與local firm無太大差異。

Q.6: 點入行？
A: 簡單講，應將問題換成點考牌。主修會計的當然搵份工、考牌就得；非主修會計者最好入Big 4，因為會免費提供conversion programme及相關訓練。若非大學生...讀完學位先啦！

Q.9:點報Big 4/2nd Tier？
A: Local U Grad: 去自己學校Career Center查詢；
Oversea U Grad: 去Big 4網頁搵相關網上申請表/E-mail address；
Experienced accountant: 感激Mandy大姐姐(mandyhk2002)吧：
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu 德勤關王陳方會計師行 (Delo, DTT)
via email: jamsin@deloitte.com.hk
Ernst & Young 安永會計師事務所 (EY)
via email: EYPeopleFirst@hk.ey.com
KPMG 畢馬威會計師事務所 (KP, KPMG)
via email: human.resources@kpmg.com.hk
Pricewaterhouse Cooper 羅兵咸永道會計師事務所 (內地稱普華永道會計師事務所) (PWC, 水房,水記)
via email: joanne.oy.wong@hk.pwc.com(Experienced Hire) Attn: ms Joanne wong
(註：做過local firm而非2nd Tier者機會比freshgrad/2nd Tier者稍低，最好搵朋友refer，但須注意有被discount 0-2年經驗的心理準備，多少視情況而定如個人背景、間firm渴人程度等。)
2nd Tier 未必會在大學做recruitment，請自行到Career Center或其網頁查詢。
至於experienced staff，再一次多謝Mandy大姐姐吧！
CCIF 陳葉馮會計師事務所
via email: tracylau@ccifcpa.com.hk attn: ms tracy lau
RSM Nelson Wheeler 羅申美會計師事務所
via email: hrcpa@rsmnelsonwheeler.com
Grant Thornton 均富會計師事務所 (GT)
要寄信先得~
Moores Rowland Mazars 摩斯倫．馬賽會計師事務所
via email: careers@mr-mazars.com.hk
HLB Hodgson Impey Cheng 國衛會計師事務所
要寄信先得~
Horwath HK 浩華會計師事務所
via email: recruitment@horwathgroup.com.hk
PKF 梁學濂會計師事務所
via email: info@pkf-hk.com
Baker Tilly HK 正風會計師事務所
via email: applications@bakertillyhk.com
BDO McCabe Lo 德豪嘉信會計師事務所 (BDO)
要寄信先得~
Nexia Charles Mar Fan 馬炎璋會計師行
via email: mls@charles-marfan.com
Shinewing (HK) 信永中和會計師事務所 (前Ho and Ho, 何錫麟會計師事務所)
要寄信先得~
Li, Tang, Chan 李湯陳會計師事務所
要寄信先得~ hr是康小姐

Q.10: 會計工作時間如何？
A: 時間、旺季間間唔同，以Big 4旺季而言大約一星期100-120小時。

Q.11: OT後有冇錢/假補？
A: 理論上有，實際上subject to「食鐘」：實際OT左100個鐘有得補20個算祖宗保祐。

Q.15: 做會計師有咩好？
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoEe7k965zg

Yet I like the following video instead:

Flat Check

2008-07-07T20:14:00.000-07:00

There are more rainy days this year than in previous years in HK. The quality will show apparently during rainy days. Unfortunately because of the land supply and the inflation, the property developers tend to sacrifice the quality of properties to secure their profit. As a result, a new professional is born, i.e. Property Inspector.

Mr. Jim 詹濟南 is the well known property inspector. He usually shows in the screen to point out the quality issue of properties and teach audiences how to inspect their own properties by theirselves. You can also download the checklist of property inspection in his website Check Of Works.

Interestingly speaking, his student who always follows him to inspect clients' properties and records the issue in his website Mr. Y. Yahoo! BLOG.

Wow, the storm comes again. Watch out at your home.

JUPAS

2008-07-06T18:57:00.000-07:00

The last week was the openning hour of repriorization of program selections for JUPAS candidates. What are the main factors of their selections? Interest? AL results? or Career for most HK people?

If the last one, candidates, except for those elites who will select Law and Medicine, should consider the salary index for 5 year experience of various career. This is the mid-term target and the important period after graduation. It decides what quality of your life.

Position	Monthly Salary
Audit Manager	40k
Cabin Crew	35k
Customer Relationship Manager	25k
Engineering Manager	35k
Senior Secretary	20k
Senior Systems Network Engineer	26k
Shipping Officer	16k

Source: CareerTimes Salary Update

Kübler-Ross Model

2008-07-02T23:52:00.000-07:00

According to Kübler-Ross Model, when people face the big fall of the stock market, they will

1. Denial:
I feel fine. This can't be happening.

2. Anger:
Why my stock? It's not fair! NO! NO! How can you accept this!

3. Bargaining:
Just let my stock bounce back to a litte bit I'll do anything, can't you stretch it out? A few more points.

4. Depression:
I'm so sad, why bother with anything? I'm going to bankrupcy . . . What's the point?

5. Acceptance:
It's going to be OK. I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it.

The above is the process by which people deal with grief and tragedy. However it should not be that of a professional investor. A professional investor should have known when he should get in and when he should get out. Just do it as if a robot does.

Property Scam

2008-06-17T18:42:00.000-07:00

Four people were jailed in $300m property scam of Centaline Property Agency. The chairperson of the agency Wing-ching Shih pointed out that the commission sharing with the buyers had become a normal practice of the field. He said that the sentences would have a deterrent effect on other real estate agents, if ICAC does not only select some individual cases.

His words were then criticized by the chairperson of Estate Agents Management Association. It seems that he refused the practice had been popular.

As those who have involved in transaction of properties all know, if the price of a property is high enough, the buyer can request the agent to waive the commission from him. This practice becomes a hole of control so that some people of buyer sides would ask for the commission back to their own pockets. In the revenue oriented field, the agents most likely say yes to "the customer request".

The reality cannot be denied. What we should do are obviously to restrict the regulation and to empower the control. Not only ICAC and the regulation authorities, but also the field should take the responsibility together.

Oil Jump

2008-06-11T09:09:00.000-07:00

According to economists, the price should freely follow the balance between the supply and the demand. Any depression of price change will be reflected after the depression pressure ceases. The world enjoyed the fantastic growth of economy with low inflation, yet now is the time to pay back.

My friend whose profession is oil commodity told me that the price of oil will jump to US$ 250 a barrel within a year. His word reminds me the situation of 70s of the last century.

HK Behavior

2008-06-02T19:23:00.001-07:00

HK is a very small place with limited population. However, such limited population has generated the profit to create the sixth largest economy of the world. Therefore, in order to earn revenue in the bullet place, focus is the key of marketing. Focus marketing leverage all resources into a small group of customers to generate the maximum revenue. Fortunately, the elite of HK performs the very closely similar behavior and the market strategy can follow the trail of the below list:

Age	Behavior
0 - 3	Be Well Cared
4 - 12	Happy Moment
13 - 15	ECA Learning
16 - 17	HKCEE, Tutorial
18 - 19	HKALE, Tutorial
20 - 22	University, Dating
23 - 28	First Job, Saving Money
29 - 32	Property, Wedding, Honeymoon
33 - 42	Baby Care
42 - 65	Golden Period of Career, Luxury
65 ~	Retirement

HK People are likely manufactured in a factory; everyone likely behaves as a formula. Why don't we make big money according to the formula?

Middle Term Forecast

2008-05-25T22:42:00.000-07:00

The mass media criticized that some scientists had warned the possibility of Sichuan Earthquake in the middle term period while the authority did not accept.

What an easy critics!

Sichuan is at the earthquake region. With activity data, it is capable to forecast the activity of long term and middle term. However, the short term activity is a kind of probability. No one can predict exactly what day and what time the earthquake will come.

For example, when we knew the subprime crisis last March according to HSBC. We could predict that HSI would go down in the middle term. Can you assume HSI falling down in the short term? Certainly not. HSI rallied over 30K before a big drop!

Taken in Wenchuan: The corner after Earthquake

Friend Talk

2008-05-01T19:13:00.000-07:00

My friend laughed at my analysis of small stocks. I was disappointed and asked for his, although he is the well-known professional in Finance.

Me: What's news about you?
Friend: Just made a deal.
Me: Oil? 386?
Friend: less a hundred.
Me: What did you mean?
Friend: 286.
Me: What is it? G-Prop? one of Mr. Lau's shells?
Friend: You could say so. I've got it anyway.
Me: I'm sorry to hear about that. (laugh)
Friend: I had had 5,000 lots and sold them all yesterday.
Me: So?
Friend: bought at 0.38 and sold at 0.59.
Me: So?
Friend: Are you SO-ing enough? I have no discrimination against any stock or stakeholder. I reject following the trend and just trust my own analysis. According to the characteristics of shells, the stock should not suffer from plain trend for quite a long time. Because of the holiday as today, I decided to make a rapid deal. Fortunately it acted just before the Fed moved.
Me: Oh, I see. Let you pay this meal.

Six Phases of Bear Market

2008-04-29T21:04:00.000-07:00

According to the traditional theory, a bear market is divided into three phases. On the other hand, Chris Ciovacco, Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, suggested to classify a bear market into six phases, i.e.

1. Stock Tread Water
2. Stock, Oil, Oil Stock and Gold Decline
3. A Sharp & Short-Lived Rally
4. Another Sharp Decline
5. Another Sharp Rally
6. Stock Fall Hard Again

Where are we? Anyone can easily earn in a bull market but only smart people can understand the bear market well.

Ten Marketing Mistakes to Avoid in China

2008-04-21T18:35:00.001-07:00

Here are some tips from OUHK about Ten Marketing Mistakes to Avoid in China:

#1: take your global CEO to dinner at M on the Bund
#2: get your Chinese name wrong
#3: ignore mass market
#4: support too many brands
#5: start at the bottom
#6: go National on day 1
#7: give control on your JV
#8: impose western value
#9: become too Chinese
#10: ignore local insights

Remember! Remember! Remember! Don't! Don't! Don't!

Seascape

2008-03-18T20:39:00.000-07:00

Hong Kong is an island city. It is a city full of shores and beaches. It is easy for citizens to view the beautiful sea.

However, citizens are struggling for flats with seascape (Seaview in Chinglish). Even in the same estate, the difference in prices between flats with seascape and those without seascape is considerably large. Being an investor, I have no comment but just follow the trend to earn.

Interestingly, there is a discussion topic about flats with seascape. The topic is called 全港海景大招募 (HK Seascape Recruitment). The members have shared very nice photos of seascape from their flats. Here are some outstanding works:

Parkisland 珀麗灣

Kingswood Villas 嘉湖山莊

Central Park 帝柏海灣

Caribbean Coast 映灣園

Pok Fu Lam Garden 薄扶林花園

Laguna Verde 海逸豪園

Harbourfront Landmark 海名軒

Discovery Bay 愉景灣

Rambler Crest 藍澄灣

Repluse Bay Road 淺水灣道

The Victoria Towers 港景峰

Hong Kong is interesting. Citizens devote their whole lives to the Property Developers.

How to Win

2008-03-18T01:43:00.000-07:00

You should have heard how to win Tai Sai (Big or Small) by the following steps called Tai Sai Tips:

1. Bet a certain amount of capital on one option, say Big.
2. If you win, then the procedure ends.
3. If you lose, then go back Step 1 with double amount of capital and the same option.

From 29 Feb opening at 12,579.58, Dow Jones Index dropped to 11,972.25 last night. The market is full of pessimistic emotion.

Being an investor, you should adjust your emotion. You should
1. Review your financial status
2. Rearrange your capital to win the market by Tai Sai Tips.

The Richest

2008-03-06T17:04:00.000-08:00

Warren Buffett was ranked by Forbes as the richest person in the world as of March 5, 2008. Congratulation!

There were many various rich men along the history but only a few could last their treasure till the end. Mr. Buffett of 77 has proved that his philosophy has passed the examination of time.

According to Buffettology by Mary Buffett, his philosophy asks the following question to determine what business to buy:

1. Is the company in an industry with good economics, i.e., not an industry competing on price. Does the company have a consumer monopoly or brand name that commands loyalty? Can any company with an abundance of resources compete successfully with the company?
2. Are the Owner Earnings on an upward trend with good and consistent margins?
3. Is the debt-to-equity ratio low or is the earnings-to-debt ratio high, i.e. can the company repay debt even in years when earnings are lower than average?
4. Does the company have high and consistent Returns on Invested Capital?
5. Does the company retain earnings for growth?
6. The business should not have high maintenance cost of operations, high capital expenditure or investment cash outflow. This is not the same as investing to expand capacity.
7. Does the company reinvest earnings in good business opportunities? Does management have a good track record of profiting from these investments?
8. Is the company free to adjust prices for inflation?

For easy understanding, I would translate them in equations as the below:
Let X be the business being considered,
1. Industry(X) is GOOD || Monopoly(X) is TRUE || Competitiveness(X) is HIGH
2. d/dx(Earning(X)) > 0 || Margin(X) is HIGH
3. Debt-To-Equity(X) is LOW || Earning-To-Debt(X) is HIGH
4. ROI(X) is HIGH && d/dx(ROI(X)) is LOW
5. Retain(Earning(X)) is TRUE
6. Maintenance(X) is LOW && CapitalExpenditure(X) is LOW && CashOutInvest(X) is LOW
7. Invest(Earning(X), GoodBusiness) is TRUE && History(Invest(X), Profit) is HIGH
8. Adjustability(GoodPrice(X), Inflation) is HIGH

IBOMBS is a middle-term investor. His philosophy is not the only criteria but is a good reference as the fundamental consideration of investment.

Here is Mr. Buffett's famous quote that you should remember well:
Rule #1: Don't lose money
Rule #2: Never forget Rule #1

Up and Down

2008-02-14T01:01:00.000-08:00

Some investment professionals suggest to set Stop Profit targets and Stop Loss targets. However, ameteur investors, especially for those whose mathematic mind is not sensitive, do not realize the difference between the portion of Profit and that of Loss. They would finally find that the same percentage of profit could not cover the same percentage of loss.

Although I do not agree with setting Stop Profit/Loss target, I show the following table for ameteur investors to realize how much the loss consumes a certain portion of profit:

Loss %	Profit % Breakeven
4.76%	5%
9.09%	10%
13.04%	15%
16.67%	20%
23.08%	30%
33.33%	50%
41.18%	70%
48.72%	95%

When your loss is almost 50%, the recover back to the original price sounds mostly hopeless. Therefore, in case that you follow the principle of setting Stop Loss target, you should act with your principle. Any violation only leads disastrous loss.

Real Estate and Investment

2008-02-03T23:29:00.000-08:00

Last summer, my friend suggested that the real estate market would get bull after Chinese New Year in 2008 (according to his complicated theories and estimation). The market looks following his expectation, because of the bullish stock market in 2007 and the shortage of new flat supply in 2008.

Beginners of investment always ask what difference between Investment and Speculation. Some people suggested the kind of stocks; some suggested the period of investment; some suggested the investors' attitude. Nevertheless, these explanation likely confuse beginners.

I would like to ask back them how they will purchase their own units of real estate:

Please treat your investment as your real estate, or you are playing gambles.

The 2008 Chinese New Year Pick

2008-02-01T00:29:00.000-08:00

IBOMBS agrees with the profession of Webb-site.com. Therefore, IBOMBS follows her tradition of The Christmas Pick, an annual stock recommendation. Yet IBOMBS offers a Chinese version. Here starts with The 2008 Chinese New Year Pick.

IBOMBS gets to play the God of Wealth 財神, rummaging in our sack of investments and picking the previously undervalued stock that IBOMBS thinks is most likely to perform over the next year. It is a seasonal present to readers. a free ride on IBOMBS' principle. You do not have to buy it, but if you follow, then you may make good money. Before IBOMBS tells you about this year's pick, here are some ground rules:

Market Overview

On 16th Sept 2007, Webb-site published an article called Incredibubble, commenting on the stock bubbles in both the mainland and Hong Kong. Who cared at that moment? HSI closed at 24,599.34 on 17th Sept while it closed at 28,128.80 on the Xmas Eve. However, on the end of January 2008, it was at 23,455.74 only. DJI also dropped below 12,000 some days in January. The stock market as well as the global economy frustrates.

Subprime Crisis iced Wall Street. But China suffers from amongst Macroeconomic Control, Price Control and the unusual snowing disaster this Winter. Neither Bush, Bernanke nor Wen Jia Bao could boost the indices up. The favorites of Hong Kong people, HSBC (SEHK: 0005) and Chine Life Insurance (SEHK: 2628) have fallen by one third.

What else will be an exception?

The Pick

IBOMBS picks China Oil and Gas Limited 中油燃氣 (SEHK: 0603) this Chinese New Year. This company is engaged in natural gas of China cities in Qinghai, Tinjing, Shandong, Wuhan province, etc by forming a joint venture named China City Natural Gas Co., Ltd. with China Petroleum Pipeline Bureau.

Her business is obviously unrelated with Subprime Crisis. It is not the target of Macroeconomic Control. It is a survivor in the world pressed by those two icebergs.

In addition, both Price Control and the snowing disaster does not impact its business. They favor it instead. The Price Control only affects the material manufacturer while this company is mainly to deliver the natural gas. The quantity of usage also helps the profit of this company. The snowing disaster has caused the substantially large consumption of electricity, coal and natural gas. Coal has run ahead. For example, China Coal (SEHK: 1898) runs at PE of 44 times. We should select some favorite stocks, which prices lag behind. China Oil and Gas Limited is a favor.

Political Advantage

According to the Seventeenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China held in Year 2007, one of political focus is to utilize such rich and clean resource as natural gas because of environmental protection. Thus Natural Gas Utilization is the national policy.

China Oil and Gas Limited, backed up by China Petroleum Pipeline Bureau and China National Petroleum Corporation, has significantly enjoyed the national policy.

Price Advantage

The revenue of 2004, 2005 and 2006 were HK$153M, HK$205M and HK$370M respectively. That of 2006 was 80% more than that of 2005. The net profit growth of 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 were HK$79M and HK$197M respectively. The growth increment was 160%.

With the 160% growth increment rate, this company should enjoy 1.6 times premium over the typical return rate (i.e. 5% or PE of 20 times). Therefore, the conservative estimation of the PE of this company should be PE of 32 times.

Moreover, the expected PEs of other companies with the same business are higher than the conversative estimation. Zhongyu Gas, 226.92; China Gas, 36.69; Xinao Gas, 35.51.

According to the conservative estimation, the reasonable minimum price should be HK$0.976. For optimistic forecast, based on Zhongyu Gas, it will be up to HK$6.92 (Wow, I can't imagine) too. The closing price of China Oil and Gas was HK$0.45 at PE of 14.75 times on 31st January 2008. Therefore, there will be at least 1.16 time return over the yesterday investment.

Conclusion

Following the trend can earn money in a bull market and lose money in a bear market. IBOMBS suggests the outstanding favorite odd as China Oil and Gas Ltd. (SEHK: 0603) at this moment of the market adjustment.

Principle

2008-01-28T08:18:00.000-08:00

Investment is hot. It is no longer the exclusive game of the rich and the financial professionals. Along with the bull of Wall Street, people from the middle-class to the grassroots have been crazy about the wave of stocks. Yet, the investment is neither a game nor a gambling. It is a battlefield of Dead or Alive. Investors should take a correct attitude.

Being a smart investor, I build this blog to show the correct attitude of investment. This blog is established for demonstrating my investment principle and sharing my opinions about the stock market. My word is not the absolute. I welcome your comments.

My investment principle is summarized as the following:
1. Both Value and Technical Analysis
2. Middle Term Oriented
3. Get Favorite Odds

Let us walk tall together on the Wall Street.